Sunday, November 23, 2014

Weekend Box Office Report: "Mockingjay" Strong But Drops from Predecessors...

Overall business was down 15% from last year when Catching Fire opened with $158 million.


MockingjayPart1Poster3.jpgAs expected, first place went to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part I, but it didn't quite have as explosive of a start as many were anticipating. The third installment in the highly popular adaptations of Suzanne Collins' books managed $123 million in its debut, averaging a strong $29,631 per-theater (it opened in 4,151 locations). This is a huge debut by all means, and is the year's biggest debut by far. But, its off $35 million from Catching Fire and $29 million from The Hunger Games. One has to wonder, what went wrong? Well, the fact the last book split into two parts did turn off some fans. Also, fans have shown that the last book in the series is often shown to be the least-favorite among the three. Finally, critical reception wasn't quite as strong as the first two movies (67% on Rotten Tomatoes vs. 84% and 89% for the first two). But, while Lionsgate should ponder how to make Part 2 work better (it opens this same weekend next year), they should still be pleased with this performance altogether. Mockingjay had the 15th-biggest debut ever for a movie, and its' debut is in line with Part I of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part I (and Part II of that last installment lept $45 million from Part I).

As for legs, the CinemaScore was a great (but not spectacular) "A-". Thanksgiving will definitely help, and like last year, it should remain on top (barring if Horrible Bosses 2 and Penguins of Madagascar don't break out, which is likely). After that, its anyone's guess how it will hold. But, a finish above $300 million seems like a guarantee here. But its going to have to have better legs than the previous two movies in order to finish ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy's $330 million domestic final gross to take first place for 2014.

Overseas is terrific also, with over $150 million earned overseas this weekend. According to major analyst websites, this is slightly up from Catching Fire in these regions. With China and Japan opening next year, Mockingjay - Part I definitely stands a chance at coming close to Catching Fire's $865 million final gross worldwide.

There were other movies in theaters this weekend, and most of the recent ones held decently. Big Hero 6 stayed in the second spot, and was off 42% to $20.1 million. Disney Animation's latest is at a solid $135.7 million in 17 days, and is running about $15 million ahead of the pace of Wreck-it Ralph. I think it will make it past $200 million, especially with Thanksgiving boosting it (provided it isn't too badly affected by Penguins).

Interstellar remained in third, and continues to hold better than sci-fi pics usually do. The Christopher Nolan epic was off 47% to $15.1 million, for a decent $120.7 million in 17 days. This movie should perform well over Thanksgiving and continue to hold well at least through mid-December (Exodus: Gods and Kings may cut into its longevity).

After topping last weekend, the floor fell underneath Dumb and Dumber To, which plunged 62% to $13.8 million. The Jeff Daniels and Jim Carrey sequel is at $57.5 million in 10 days and will get a small boost over Thanksgiving. Still though, with this kind of drop, $100 million is probably out of reach now. Looks like people are growing tired of these two's crass and utterly stupid shtick.

Amazingly, David Fincher's Gone Girl managed an eighth-straight week in the Top 5, though a very-distant fifth. The potential awards contender fell 38% to $2.8 million, for a strong $156.8 million gross in 56 days. Thanksgiving will keep this one going also, and it may remain in this list until right before Christmas.

Despite strong reviews and audience reception, Beyond the Lights seemed almost a one-and-done wonder, down 58% to $2.6 million. The musical drama is at just $10.1 million in 10 days with not much more to go (though Thanksgiving may help it hold better next weekend). St. Vincent, on the other hand, continued to hold up, off 38% to $2.4 million, for a solid $36.6 million gross in 49 days.

Fury was down 50% to $1.9 million, for a fairly solid $79.2 million gross in six weeks, with about $5 million to go. Awards contender Birdman kept its theaters and was off a Top 10-lightest 25% to $1.86 million, for a decent $14.4 million in the same amount of time. Look for this to have even more success over Thanksgiving. Rounding out the Top 10 was Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, which at only 140 locations pulled in $1.5 million (a $10,700 per-venue average). In three weeks of limited release, the well-received dramedy has earned $2.8 million.

Next week is Thanksgiving!! I will have a predictions post up Tuesday afternoon, but will probably not be doing daily updates like the last two years. But Penguins of Madagascar and Horrible Bosses 2 should both do decently. Or will they? Who knows?