Thanksgiving Weekend Box Office Predictions.

Thanksgiving is one of my favorite times of the year, also to predict movies and how they fare in theaters. Unfortunately, this year isn't looking very strong as last year had The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen combine for over $200 million combined over the five-day period, something this year will certainly not reach.

Here is the predicted Top 10 for the 3-day and 5-day periods:

3-day:

#1: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part I ($56 million, -54%)
#2: Penguins of Madagascar ($35 million)
#3: Horrible Bosses 2 ($25 million)
#4: Big Hero 6 ($16 million, -21%)
#5: Interstellar ($12 million, -25%)
#6: Dumb and Dumber To ($9 million, -36%)
#7: Gone Girl ($2.5 million, -11%)
      The Theory of Everything ($2.5 million, expanding)
#9: St. Vincent ($1.8 million, -19%)
      Beyond the Lights ($1.8 million, -30%)

5-day:

#1: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part I ($75 million)

#2: Penguins of Madagascar ($48 million)
#3: Horrible Bosses 2 ($35 million)
#4: Big Hero 6 ($22 million)
#5: Interstellar ($17 million)
#6: Dumb and Dumber To ($12 million)
#7: The Theory of Everything ($3.5 million)
#8: Gone Girl ($3.3 million)
#9: St. Vincent ($2.5 million)
#10: Beyond the Lights ($2.4 million)

DreamWorks Animation is in dire need of a box office success after misfiring with Turbo and Mr. Peabody and Sherman, while How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn't live up to expectations. Based on buzz and mixed reviews (64% on Rotten Tomatoes), this one isn't looking like it will give the studio that much-needed breakout hit. Being a spin-off, the marketing hasn't quite been very memorable. Despite that, however, the brand familiarity of the characters and the Madagascar movies will help Penguins to fly higher than Rise of the Guardians did on Thanksgiving weekend 2 years ago (that one was a major failure earning just $33 million over the five-day period and grossing just over $100 million by the time it left theaters). Competition from Big Hero 6 won't help either.

The playing field looks a bit better for Horrible Bosses 2, which has had an aggressive, yet somewhat workable marketing campaign. But comedy sequels are tough sells. And this one has bad reviews (31% on Rotten Tomatoes) to boot. However, the solid marketing effort and relatively little competition should give this one a solid start over the holiday weekend.

Mockingjay - Part I should hold the top spot, like its predecessor, and drop about the same as the first movie. Meanwhile, the holiday weekend should boost Big Hero 6, Interstellar and Dumb and Dumber To. The rest of the list will benefit also, with awards season favorite Gone Girl and the expanding Theory of Everything to get the biggest bumps of the list.