Will Mark Wahlberg and Optimus Prime be enough to push a film above $100 million for an opening weekend?
Here is my Top 10:
#1: Transformers: Age of Extinction ($101 million)
#2: How To Train Your Dragon 2 ($16.5 million, -33%)
#3: 22 Jump Street ($15 million, -46%)
#4: Think Like a Man Too ($13 million, -56%)
#5: Jersey Boys ($9 million, -34%)
#6: Maleficent ($8.5 million, -34%)
#7: Edge of Tomorrow ($5.5 million, -44%)
#8: The Fault in Our Stars ($5 million, -42%)
#9: X-Men: Days of Future Past ($3.5 million, -45%)
#10: Chef ($1.3 million, -24%)
Transformers: Age of Extinction, based on tracking, is largely expected to hit $100 million for its debut. It won't hit the levels of two of the previous Michael Bay franchise films, but it will still have an impressive debut nonetheless. Overseas will be huge. In fact, this is likely to become the year's biggest film domestically and worldwide, with possible worldwide grosses hitting $1 billion.
As for holdovers, look for family films How To Train Your Dragon 2 and Maleficent to hold on strong, as well as other films not aiming for Transformers audience, such as Jersey Boys and Chef. Ones aiming for teenagers and adults will not be so lucky. 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow and X-Men: Days of Future Past all seem likely for at least 45-50% drops, while Think Like a Man Too suggests an even heavier drop due to recent genre comparisons. Finally, The Fault in Our Stars will land right in the middle, as it will continue to be a choice for females, but will lose some other date night teenagers in the process.
