Out of all four new releases, Kick-*** 2 seems to have the edge. But one has to wonder, what the heck is it doing here?? The first movie only was a minor success, taking in $55 million domestically. However, it has developed a strong fanbase through DVD sales, and apparently, buzz and anticipation are very strong so far. I don't think this is going to make much of a dent, as its' R rating will keep back many comic book fans. Early reviews have been stale. I am predicting a $21 million opening, on its' way to around the same as its' predecessor.
However, the movie I believe that has a chance to out-gross the rest in the long run is historical drama The Butler (yes, I am aware of the title controversy, but the director's name included doesn't really change things for me). Distributor The Weinstein Company has had a terrific marketing campaign, which has highlighted the drama's cast and historical basis. Critical reception has been very strong, and it seems like there's strong appeal among older audiences. But older audiences generally don't come out on opening week, so its' a little difficult to predict the opening weekend. I'm going to go with a $20 million weekend for The Butler, and I believe its' going to have strong legs, and play out to between $80 and $100 million domestically.
Also opening this weekend is Ashton Kutcher's biographical adaptation, JOBS. Based on the life of Apple founder Steve Jobs, buzz has been decent so far for this flick, though Kutcher may seem like an odd choice. JOBS was originally up for release in April, but Open Roads Films has been messing around with release dates. That's not a good sign typically, but in this case, JOBS seems different enough that I think it has sleeper potential. But can it compete against The Butler? That's tough. I'm going with a sixth place, $11 million debut for the weekend, on its' way to $30 million or so.
Finally, Liam Hemsworth and Harrison Ford get into the mix with Paranoia. Relativity Media has done a decent job with the marketing, and the starpower is much better than at least two of the other films releasing. However, early reviews are negative, and there's a large amount of drama competition on the marketplace. It may be able to take in young adults not interested in foul-mouthed superheroes or Ashton Kutcher, but that may be a very small group. I think a $9 million seventh place opening is a bit generous, but with just a $15 million budget, it won't need much in order to become a success. I think a $20-$25 million finish is good enough.As for the rest of the Top 5, last week's topper Elysium is likely to wind up behind We're The Millers and Planes this weekend. The R-rated comedy should hold well, and ease about 40% to $16 million, for a strong $69 million 12-day gross, on its' way to well past $100 million. The animated flick should hold well with no additional competition, and may fall around 35% to $14.5 million, for a $47 million 10-day pick-up. Elysium may drop around 55% to $13.5 million, for a 10-day pick-up of $56 million.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#8: Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters ($8.5 million, -41%)
#9: The Smurfs 2 ($6 million, -36%)
#10: The Wolverine ($5 million, -38%)
