Those crazy minions are back along with their master and friends in Despicable Me 2. Following a quick three years after its' predecessor was the breakout blockbuster of 2010, grossing $250 million domestically and $550 million worldwide, the sequel has been in marketing mode over the past month. With the first film being well-liked among family and non-family audiences, a lot of people have labeled this as a must-see this summer. In fact, Despicable Me 2 could be the first non-Pixar film to top the yearly box office animation-wise in years. Tracking has been through the roof, as Illumination is striving to become a force to be reckoned with, like Pixar and DreamWorks. Despicable Me and The Lorax were $200+ million blockbusters, and Hop opened to one of the biggest April weekends of all-time. Reviews have also been very good, though most have said it falls short of its' predecessor. The only thing that may not help the film is competition, which is a lot stronger this year than what it was in 2010. Turbo, The Smurfs 2 and Planes will challenge it in the coming weeks, while Monsters University will take in at least $20 million this weekend. I think the strong buzz will drive a Wednesday-Thursday gross of around $30 million, and a weekend of $75 million. It should then go on to gross around $275 million or more domestically, and much more overseas.
Hoping to take in older kids, teenagers, and adults, Disney tries to score a live-action hit with The Lone Ranger. Starring Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer, the film has been tracking fairly solid over the past few months, though it hasn't been very impressive. At the beginning of the year, it seemed like it would be a close race for the top spot, now, it looks like the Minions will be taking down the masked man, by a fairly wide margin. A lot of analysts are pegging this to be the next John Carter, a big-budget flop for Disney last year. And with a huge $250 million budget, its' going to be challenging for this to succeed. Reviews have been very negative. Still though, I think this will do fine, as the western/action theme is distinct enough to draw in mainstream audiences. Wednesday and Thursday should add up to around $20 million, and the weekend may be around $45 million, on its' way to around $140 million stateside, provided if word-of-mouth isn't bad.
Disney may occupy second and third place this weekend, as Monsters University will have the minions to compete with. With strong word-of-mouth though and kids out of school now, plus the Independence Day holiday coming up, I think the drop will be a bit less than what other animated flicks would do on different weekends against new competition. A 50% dip to $23 million would give it $225 million in 17 days. The Heat may take third from it if the animated prequel drops harsher. The R-rated comedy should drop about 40% to the same amount, giving it $80 million in 10 days. World War Z should round out the Top 5 with a 50% dip to $15 million, for a 17-day gross of a strong $151 million.
Comedian film Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain also launches in around 800 theaters, and should earn around $7 million for the five-day period ($4 million three-day).
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: White House Down ($12.5 million, -50%)
#7: Man of Steel ($12 million, -42%)
#8: This is the End ($5.5 million, -36%)
#9: Now You See Me ($4 million, -29%)
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain ($4 million)
