After a crowded May, June kicks right into blockbuster action with the highly-anticipated Superman reboot Man of Steel. Since its' debut trailer seven months ago, audiences have clamored this as perhaps being the superhero movie they've been waiting for. And with Iron Man 3 ready to finally be knocked out, audiences will likely flock to this film. It has a tone similar to that of producer Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight films, and its' starpower is very strong, with Henry Cavill, Amy Adams, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane, Russell Crowe, and Michael Shannon in the cast. Buzz is undeniably strong, but one has to wonder after a month that scored six $100+ million grossers, would audiences shell out extra cash so soon? Probably. Reviews, while good, haven't exactly clamored this as a fabulous superhero movie, which may make some people on the fence wait out. Regardless, this is far from a risky bet, and while director Zach Snyder has yet to really establish himself (300 and Watchmen were solid hits, but his other efforts were disasters), that probably won't matter. I think Man of Steel will open to a strong $102 million for the weekend. Competition will be fierce in the coming weeks though, as World War Z, White House Down, The Lone Ranger and Pacific Rim will challenge its' fanboy audience. As a result, the final gross should wind up around $275 million, easily enough to successfully reboot a long-dormant franchise.
Easily going to take second place is the latest R-rated comedy hopeful This is the End, which actually opened today and earned a very solid $2.2 million from Tuesday evening/midnight shows (that's ahead of Now You See Me through the same point). But given the films' strong cast of Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, James Franco, Jay Baruchel, and others, it seems that these names will easily draw a nice crowd. However, the only real person to draw a blockbuster-sized audience is Franco, who has the Spider-Man movies, Oz the Great and Powerful and Rise of the Planet of the Apes to boast about. Besides that, majority of the others only have scored hits in the animated voice-over department (DreamWorks for most, Baruchel was Hiccup in How To Train Your Dragon, Hill was also in that movie and MegaMind, while Rogen was in Monsters VS. Aliens and Craig Robinson was in Escape from Planet Earth). But that aside, R-rated comedies do succeed in the summer, and given audiences' bad reactions from The Hangover - Part III, its' a really good sign for this movie to break out. The Heat will steal its' audience in a couple of weeks, but that shouldn't deter this films' chances. I think This is the End will tally about $15 million from Wednesday-Thursday, and $21 million for the three-day weekend, on its' way to a final gross in the $90-$100 million range.
The Purge will likely drop hard (as usual for horror flicks), so look for a 60% decline to $13.5 million, for a 10-day gross of a strong $59 million. Now You See Me should remain solid counter-programming, so a 35% dip to $12.5 million would result in a strong $83 million gross in 17 days. Fast and Furious 6 should round out the Top 5, and will likely take a bit of a hit with Man of Steel in the marketplace. A 50% dip to roughly $10 million might result, giving the blockbuster $220 million in 24 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: The Internship ($9 million, -48%)
#7: Epic ($8.5 million, -29%)
#8: Star Trek into Darkness ($7 million, -39%)
#9: After Earth ($5 million, -56%)
#10: The Hangover - Part III ($3 million, -59%)
