The only new release this frame is easily going to top the box office, sci-fi sequel Star Trek into Darkness. J.J. Abrams (who will be directing the next Star Wars movie), has created a strong reputation for himself after the stunning success of Star Trek, which opened to $79 million four years ago, on its' way to over $250 million domestically and $440 million worldwide (not really succeeding outside of America). That movie reinvigorated interest in a somewhat dead franchise that had hit rock bottom seven years before with an installment of the original cast that only grossed $43 million in its' entire run. Being a remake of a 70's show will easily bring in older fans of the TV show, as well as the newfound fans from the earlier movie. Plus, reviews have been great and ever since its' debut trailer last autumn, buzz has been through the roof. 3D and IMAX 3D will only push the gross higher. There are a couple of drawbacks, however. One, its' sandwhiched between strong competition, with Iron Man 3 breaking records and two guaranteed huge hits opening next weekend, it may be tough for Star Trek to make a long-lasting impression. Also, over the last couple of weeks, due to the impressive amount of buzz for other summer releases, buzz has surprisingly quieted down a bit, but that's not a huge problem. Finally, distributor Paramount (desperately looking for a blockbuster after losing DreamWorks Animation and Marvel last year) made a last-minute decision to have the movie open today, which basically guarantees the film to not hit $100 million for the weekend. However, that's not a huge problem either. If anything, based on the huge buzz alone, Star Trek could pass $100 million over the four-day period, but then crash quickly in the weeks ahead. What's my prediction? I think Darkness will start off with around $6-$9 million from Midnight/evening shows, on its' way to around $30 million on Thursday. Based on recent trajectories, it should translate to a weekend of around $80 million, for a spectacular four-day start of $110 million. With the stunning amount of competition, expect this to finish probably around the same as its' predecessor, $250 to $275 million at most.
There's not much else. Iron Man 3 will be second, and will probably take a similar fall as last weekend with this added burst of competition. A drop in line with last weekend (58%) would give it $31 million, and a spectacular $335 million gross in 17 days, on its' way to $400+ million. The Great Gatsby will be third, and based on its' so-so word-of-mouth isn't looking like it will hold well either. A 50% drop probably is the strongest it will do, giving it $25 million and a 10-day tally of a strong $92 million.
The rest of the Top 10 looks like this:
#4: Pain and Gain ($3 million, -40%)
42 ($3 million, -29%)
#6: The Croods ($2.5 million, -27%)
42 ($3 million, -29%)
#6: The Croods ($2.5 million, -27%)
#7: Peeples ($2 million, -57%)
#8: Oblivion ($1.5 million, -62%)
Mud ($1.5 million, -35%)
#8: Oblivion ($1.5 million, -62%)
Mud ($1.5 million, -35%)
The Big Wedding ($1.5 million, -42%)
