Out of all three new releases, the one with the best chance of breaking out is Mark Wahlberg's latest action thriller Broken City. This same weekend last year, another Wahlberg film, Contraband, opened to nearly $25 million over the four-day MLK weekend. And with Russell Crowe co-starring, it would seem imminent this could match that films' opening weekend. Plus, Wahlberg has been getting more and more popular with the successes of Contraband and Ted. But not so fast. Buzz is relatively modest, and reviews have been negative. Plus there's too many R-rated films on the market (unlike last year when there was only one against Contraband). Unless it nets a strong opening, Broken City may kick off 20th Century Fox's year on a slow note, as the studio paid a relatively expensive $56 million on the film. Opening in around 2,700 theaters, Broken City should earn around $13 million for the three-day weekend and $17 million for the four-day. The movie should go on to gross around $45 million stateside, if word-of-mouth is positive.Competing against Broken City is horror flick Mama. Unlike its' January competition, this one carries a PG-13 rating, which will allow it to take in younger adults. Plus, it has the Oscar-nominated Jessica Chastain as the leading role, which will allow the flick to draw a nice-sized crowd. Competition isn't much, as A Haunted House will certainly earn less than $10 million this weekend. Plus the marketing's been solid. The only thing holding it back is that tracking hasn't been very strong, and reviews have been right down the middle. Debuting in about 2,400 theaters, Mama should scare up $11 million for the three-day and $14 million for the four-day, on its' way to around $25 million stateside.
The other movie in theaters this weekend is Arnold Schwarzenegger's The Last Stand. Highly-anticipated within a select group, the film marks Schwarzenegger's first lead role in 10 years. Originally, it was expected this film would top the box office, but tracking has barely been noticeable and it seems anticipation is low outside of Schwarzenegger's fan base. The film is R-rated (seven of the Top 10 movies will be carrying that rating), and with so much competition, it will further lower its' chances of breaking out. Perhaps a March or April release might have suited this better. In around 2,800 theaters, The Last Stand should earn $9 million for the 3-day and $12 million for the four-day, on its' way to around $25 million on this side of the world.
Finally, awards season darling The Silver Linings Playbook finally expands nationwide this weekend. Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress (Comedy or Musical) at the Golden Globes and the movie has eight Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. Last weekend, it earned $5 million, and I do think it has a solid chance of having strong numbers this weekend. In 2,400 theaters, Silver Linings Playbook should tally $8 million over the three-day and $11 million over the four-day period. The film should then play well into Oscar season, and could reach $80 million or more by the time its' done.
Zero Dark Thirty, who won Best Actress (Drama) for Jessica Chastain, should hold on to #1 with strong word-of-mouth benefiting it. A 30% drop over the three-day weekend would give it $17 million and $21 million over the four-day. The films' five-week total should be at around $60 million.
Here is a look at the Top 10 for the four-day weekend:
#1: Zero Dark Thirty ($17 million (-31%) 3-day/$21 million 4-day)
#2: Broken City ($13 million 3-day/$17 million 4-day)
#3: Mama ($11 million 3-day/$14 million 4-day)
#4: Gangster Squad ($10 million 3-day (-41%)/$13 million 4-day)
#5: The Last Stand ($9 million 3-day/$12 million 4-day)
#6: The Silver Linings Playbook ($8 million 3-day/$11 million 4-day)
#7: Django Unchained ($8 million (-28%) 3-day/$10.5 million 4-day)
#8: A Haunted House ($7.5 million (-59%) 3-day/$9.5 million 4-day)
#9: Les Miserables ($6.5 million (-33%) 3-day/$9 million 4-day)
#10: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($6 million (-35%) 3-day/$8.5 million 4-day)
