I have to say this, Jessica Chastain is turning into a heck of a bankable star. Unless things pick up on Saturday, box office will fall just short of last year...
Mama didn't seem to have noticeable buzz, but the horror flick surprised the industry on Friday taking in a huge estimated $10 million on Friday. That's ahead of Contraband's $8.6 million debut Friday, but horror flicks usually see more business on opening Friday. It also will mark the second-straight weekend Golden Globe-winning actress Jessica Chastain has had a movie starring her topping the box office. Despite mixed reception from critics and audiences ("B-" CinemaScore [above-average for a horror flick]), the movie should see a strong 4-day gross. The big question is, how hard will it drop on Saturday? With the advantage of people off work on Monday, Sunday's declines won't be as big for most movies, so Mama should earn more than Texas Chainsaw 3D's opening weekend. I think a $25 million 3-day weekend and $29 million 4-day should be expected.
Chastain's other film, Zero Dark Thirty, did experience a rougher-than-expected drop this weekend. The Oscar contender was off 50% Friday-to-Friday to an estimated $4.6 million. In what should be a better multiple this weekend, the film looks to earn around $15 million for the 3-day and $18.5 million for the 4-day.
Disappointing in third place, Mark Wahlberg just couldn't replicate Contraband's success with Broken City. The action flick debuted to an estimated $3 million, and earned a mixed "B" CinemaScore. The film should take in around $9 million for the 3-day and $11.5 million for the 4-day weekend.
Expanding to over 2,500 locations, another Oscar contender, The Silver Linings Playbook fared well. Coming in fourth place on Friday, the film earned an estimated $2.95 million. No CinemaScore is available, but critics loved it, and the Best Picture nomination guarantees strong playability through the end of February. Look for a $9 million 3-day gross and $12 million 4-day gross, and I expect it to take third place from Broken City.
Rounding out the Top 5 was Gangster Squad, which tumbled 60% from last Friday to an estimated $2.7 million. The star-studded crime flick continues to underwhelm with what will be a $8.5 million 3-day weekend and $10.5 million for the extended frame.
All the way down in ninth place with disastrous results was Arnold Schwarzenegger's return to a lead role, The Last Stand, which picked up a pale estimated $1.9 million despite critical acclaim. No CinemaScore was available. The film is looking at just $5.5 million for the three-day and $7 million for the four-day, well behind expectations.
Weekend estimates to be posted tomorrow afternoon...
