wrap up with record numbers...
There are eight (!) new movies releasing between tomorrow and Christmas Day. Lets' start off with this coming weekend (a five-day frame should be considered since some kids are out of school this week).
Starting off with the Wednesday releases, Disney and Pixar re-release their second movie in the last three months. And this time, its Monsters, Inc. The studio's first major non-Toy Story hit is well-beloved, and is releasing six months in advance of its' highly-anticipated prequel, Monsters University. Disney has certainly done a top-notch job with the marketing, and the pre-Christmas weekend usually serves family movies well (especially New Year's). With kids off for this week all the way through January 6, this one certainly is well-positioned. However, Disney's recent 3D re-releases have slowly gone downwards, with Finding Nemo only earning $41 million in its' re-issue run. Monsters does have the advantage of limited home video availability, and families looking for something to take their little ones to will likely for settle for this one. Debuting in around 2,400 locations, Monsters, Inc. 3D should scare up about $5-$6 million over Wednesday and Thursday, and $11 million over the three-day weekend ($16 million five-day). The movie should then see a huge bump next weekend, and could go on to gross as high as $60 million by the time it leaves theaters.
Counter-programming against another movie debuting on Friday is Barbara Streisand who takes a road trip with Seth Rogen in The Guilt Trip. This mother-son comedy is hoping to be the next Hope Springs, a similar movie which had low expectations, but had strong legs and finished with over $65 million domestic. Guilt Trip won't earn nearly as much because for one, there's way too much competition to allow a big audience to go see it, leaving the film with just the older demographic as its' target. That audience does eventually come out, if word-of-mouth is positive, but films aimed at older audiences usually open softly. Critical reception is negative, while analysts' expectations are all over the place. Opening in 2,300 locations, Trip will likely score just $5 million over Wednesday and Thursday and $9 million for its' opening weekend ($14 million 5-day). But once Christmas is past, the movie should pick up over New Year's, and go on to gross around $50 million.
Next up is Judd Apatow's latest R-rated comedy, This is 40. Highly-anticipated within a select group, the movie has mid-range stars Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann. Apatow has had his share of successes, most famously, Bridesmaids and Knocked Up. 40 has been advertised as a sequel to the latter, but that probably won't draw in the crowds. The one big advantage this movie has is that there has been no R-rated comedies in the marketplace since the Summer (where these types of films usually perform better). This advantage alone guarantees an audience for the film, but mixed critical reception may help or hurt it. Opening in over 2,900 theaters, This is 40 probably will take in about $16 million for the weekend. Like Jack Reacher, it probably won't benefit as much from the extended breaks, but a final gross of around $60 million looks about right.
Hoping to draw in mainstream and family audiences is 3D performance movie, Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away. Directed by The Chronicles of Narnia's Andrew Adamson, and produced by the legendary James Cameron, the acrobats/effects-driven troupe is loved by many around the world, and its' likely that those fans will come out to see this. Reviews have been positive by far and marketing has been top-notch. But its' only debuting in around 800 locations, and families may or may not show up for this. Showtimes are limited, which is another disparaging factor, despite 3D boosting its' gross. Cirque Du Soleil should earn around $4 million for the weekend, but if it can expand next weekend, it might be able to take advantage of family audiences. Right now, a final gross of around $20 million seems likely.Before I do updated charts for both weekends, lets' take a look at what's coming Christmas Day.
Getting some awards attention and being named the favorite among all eight new releases is Quentin Tarantino's latest directorial effort, Django Unchained. The R-rated western is being acclaimed by critics, and stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Samuel L. Jackson, Christoph Waltz and Jamie Foxx. Tarantino has a huge fanbase, and his last film, Inglorious B!+@*#%&, opened to $38 million on its' debut weekend. But that was during the summer, when that type of movie would usually perform better. But not much choices for mainstream audiences, plus Tarantino's fanbase and awards season-attention should guarantee a very large audience. An estimated theater count isn't available right now, but Django Unchained should rope in around $10 million on Christmas Day Tuesday, and around $25 million for the Tuesday-Thursday period. With its' Tuesday opening, demand will be burned off a bit, and the weekend gross should be around $25 million. Even if it doesn't hold like a crowd-pleaser, its' still guaranteed to wind up with over $100 million.
Counter-programming Tarantino and also getting awards season attention is musical adaptation Les Miserables. Starpower is great, with Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Amanda Seyfried, Sacha Baron Cohen, Helena Bonham Carter, and Anne Hathaway leading the cast. Hathaway's breathtaking and tear-jerking rendition of "I Dreamed A Dream" drew lots of attention and excitement. The musical, which has been around since 1981, has wowed audiences all over the world even until today, so anticipation has been huge. Musicals are a mixed bag at the box office, with earlier this year's Rock of Ages being a disaster. But with already four Golden Globe nominations under its' belt and critical acclaim, Les Miserables is very well-positioned to be the biggest musical adaptation since Mamma Mia! (though matching that movie's $158 million gross probably won't happen). The film should take in $8-$9 million on Christmas Day, $21 million over the Tuesday-Thursday period and $25 million over the weekend. Awards season should guarantee the film to play through January, and this movie should also pass $100 million before its' done.
Finally, Billy Crystal and Bette Midler play a couple of determined grandparents in family comedy Parental Guidance. While not well-known with children (Crystal will be competing against himself, however with Monsters, Inc.), Crystal and Midler are well-known with adults and grandparents, who may take the time to take their kids/grandkids to see it. Critical reception hasn't been that great, but that probably won't matter. Distributor 20th Century Fox has done a way better job marketing this one than what they did with their previous efforts with Walden Media. Families who already own Monsters, Inc. will likely flock to this one. Because its' the only original non-animated family flick in the marketplace this season, I believe that this is going to break out. Parental Guidance should start off slow on Christmas Day, with around $2-$3 million, but pick up extremely well over the following few days, and earn $10 million between Tuesday and Thursday, and an additional $14 million over the weekend. No competition in January should allow it to at least come close to $50 million before its' all said and done.And that leaves us with the holdovers. Obviously, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will stay at the top spot for the next two weekends (possibly three). But how well it will hold is in question. I don't expect it to earn the same amount as last weekend like Avatar did. Instead, with solid word-of-mouth and kids out of school in its' favor, a 40% dip might happen, giving Peter Jackson's flick $50 million this weekend. Over the next weekend, it will likely pick up a bit, so I think a miniscule 5% dip the following weekend to $48 million should be expected. By the time New Year's passes, The Hobbit should be closing in on $250 million (or may surpass it if business is better than expected). Obviously expect family fare like Rise of the Guardians to hold itself well, and being not exactly holiday-centric will work to its' benefit over New Year's Weekend. Also, awards season fare such as Lincoln and Life of Pi will also benefit. The jury is out for Skyfall, as much more competition will make it lose screens. But the rush of audiences to theaters over Christmas week plus word-of-mouth will keep it playing until the new year. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part II and Wreck-it Ralph will drop out of the Top 10, but they will rebound a bit next weekend.
Here is a look at the Top 10 for both weekends, as well as the five-day grosses for this coming frame and six-day grosses for the Christmas-New Year's period. NOTE: Adult-oriented films usually gross much more than family-oriented films on Christmas Eve and Day, so a few minor shifts are made in the projected six-day grosses.
December 21-23, 2012:
#1: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($50.5 million, -40%)
#2: Jack Reacher ($19 million)
#3: This is 40 ($16 million)
#4: Monsters Inc. 3D ($11 million)
#5: The Guilt Trip ($9 million)
#6: Rise of the Guardians ($5.5 million, -23%)
#7: Lincoln ($5 million, -29%)
#8: Skyfall ($4.5 million, -32%)
#9: Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away ($4.1 million)
#10: Life of Pi ($3.9 million, -27%)
December 19-23, 2012
#1: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($67 million)
#2: Jack Reacher ($19 million)
#3: Monsters Inc. 3D ($16.5 million)
#4: This is 40 ($16 million)
#5: The Guilt Trip ($14 million)
#6: Rise of the Guardians ($8 million)
#7: Lincoln ($7 million)
#8: Skyfall ($6 million)
#9: Life of Pi ($5.5 million)
#10: Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away ($4.1 million)
December 28-30, 2012
#1: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($48 million, -5%)
#2: Django Unchained ($25.5 million)
#3: Les Miserables ($24.5 million)
#4: Monsters Inc. 3D ($17.5 million, +55%)
#5: Jack Reacher ($17 million, -11%)
#6: Parental Guidance ($14 million)
#7: This is 40 ($13.5 million, -16%)
#8: The Guilt Trip ($13 million, +44%)
#9: Rise of the Guardians ($7.5 million, +36%)
#10: Lincoln ($7 million, +40%)
December 25-30, 2012
#1: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($76 million)
#2: Django Unchained ($50.5 million)
#3: Les Miserables ($45.5 million)
#4: Jack Reacher ($33 million)
#5: Monsters Inc. 3D ($30 million)
#6: This is 40 ($26 million)
#7: Parental Guidance ($24 million)
#8: The Guilt Trip ($23.5 million)
#9: Rise of the Guardians ($15 million)
#10: Lincoln ($14.5 million)
