Box office will take a tumble (as usual for post-Thanksgiving), but remain ahead of last year, thanks to strong holdovers...
The only new release is Brad Pitt's action flick Killing Them Softly.Distributor Open Road Films has done an OK job with the marketing and early reviews have been positive. Plus, Pitt is a box office draw. However, movies opening over post-Thanksgiving frames usually are ignored by audiences. Plus, the movie's R rating will limit its' audience and the competition is overwhelming with Skyfall and Lincoln attracting solid word-of-mouth. A moderate opening in just around 2,000 theaters won't help matters either. A sixth place opening of around $9 million will probably result, on its' way to a forgettable $25 million stateside.
That leaves the weekend race between The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn-Part II and Skyfall. Both should drop, but I believe that solid word-of-mouth will put James Bond back on top. A 55% drop to $16 million would give the movie an astonishing $246 million in 25 days. Twilight should take a sharper tumble, down 65% to $15.5 million in second place, for a 17-day tally of a huge $252 million, and may be passed by Bond in the next couple of weeks.
Lincoln will be a close third and will hold better due to solid word-of-mouth and its' appeal to older audiences. In fact, it has a small chance at taking the top spot A 45% ease might occur, giving Steven Spielberg's Oscar frontrunner $14.5 million, and a 17-day tally of a huge $84 million. Fourth will be a tight race between last weekend's new releases Rise of the Guardians and Life of Pi. However, with solid word-of-mouth and Santa being a part of the movie, I think Guardians will hold about the same as Arthur Christmas. A 40% ease to $14 million should occur (it could hold better and take third place), but its' 10-day total will only be just shy of $50 million. Pi should drop 45% to $12.5 million, for a 10-day tally of $48.5 million.
Here is the remainder of the Top 10:
#7: Wreck-It Ralph ($7.5 million, -55%)
#8: Red Dawn ($6 million, -59%)
#9: Flight ($4.8 million, -43%)
#10: The Silver Linings Playbook ($2.7 million, -39%)
