Usually its' DreamWorks Animation kicking off the holiday season. Not this year. Disney instead swaps dates with its' competition this year by unleashing 3D video-game animation Wreck-it Ralph. About a couple of months ago, I was thinking this was only going to do so-so business. And why not? This looks quite odd for a movie by Disney's animation unit, who has yet to prove itself on the computer-animation front (2010's Tangled was a $200 million blockbuster, but its' their only major hit of the 21st century by far). Plus, audiences have had their fill with animation this year, with five titles reaching $140 million or more. But surprising as it is, buzz has been surging for this pic over the past month. And its' not just family audiences helping it, its' also highly-anticipated by video game fans, including fans of E3 and Comic-Con (mainly because of many characters making cameos, including Sonic, Q-bert and others). Competition is little, as Hotel Transylvania is closing up shop for the year, and DreamWorks' Rise of the Guardians is the only potential audience-taker for this title. The character's bad guy-to-good guy plot does bring to mind 2010's Despicable Me and MegaMind (the latter debuted to $46 million on this same weekend two years ago), but those were a bit more appealing, so it would make sense for Ralph to fall short of those films' openings. But here's the catch: its' tracking far ahead of those two in terms of Facebook and Twitter, so its' hard to ignore the buzz. I'm going to go on a limb and say Wreck-it Ralph (opening in over 3,600 theaters) clobbers up a huge $58 million this weekend. Based on recent trajectories, the movie will likely head for a finish between $180-$200 million.
Opening as counter-programming is Denzel Washington's latest, action drama Flight. Teaming with director Robert Zemeckis, the actor is hoping to continue his near-impeccable track record. Washington had a major hit at the beginning of the year with Safe House, which opened to a huge $41 million on its' way to over $120 million stateside. Flight looks a bit similar, only more on the dramatic side. Critics have been giving the film great reception, and it appears awareness is high (Paramount has done a great job with the marketing). The only thing holding it back, its' only getting a release in 1,800+ theaters, which will limit business (as will its' R rating, but that didn't affect Safe House). Expect Flight to come in second place with a good $23 million (nice per-theater average), on its' way to $75 million domestic (if word-of-mouth is good).
Meanwhile, the other new release doesn't look as strong. Martial arts-action flick The Man with the Iron Fists is looking to try and be a different choice for mainstream audiences. Starring Russell Crowe and Lucy Liu, the film doesn't have much awareness or excitement. However, Quentin Tarantino does appear to have been involved with the production (it says on top), and some of his fans may come out (as will Crowe's). Distributor Universal hasn't given it a good promotional push, and has held it back from critics (not a good sign). Opening in around 1,800 theaters, Iron Fists will likely earn around $6 million this weekend, taking fourth place for the weekend. It will likely leave theaters in the $15-$20 million range.Argo will have to surrender the top spot, but it will still continue to hold itself together. The question is, how hard will it drop in the face of Flight? A 30% slip looks to be in order, giving the Ben Affleck film $8.5 million, for a $73 million gross in 24 days. Rounding out the Top 5, by default, will be Hotel Transylvania, but will drop hard in the face of Ralph and Halloween being today. Look for the film to lose half of its' business, giving it roughly $5 million, for a $137 million gross in six weeks of release.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Cloud Atlas ($4.5 million, -54%)
#7: Taken 2 ($4 million, -48%)
#8: Here Comes The Boom ($3.5 million, -36%)
#9: Paranormal Activity 4 ($3 million, -65%)
#10: Silent Hill: Revelation ($2.5 million, -69%)
