The box office continues to pace ahead of last year, and with a strong holiday slate including three guaranteed blockbusters in The Hobbit, Skyfall, and Twilight: Breaking Dawn - Part II, plus a variety of potential mid-range hits, including Wreck-it Ralph, Lincoln, Rise of the Guardians, Life of Pi, Django Unchained and Les Miserables, 2012 looks to end on a high note.
The likely winner of the holidays will be The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, a prequel of sorts to Lord of the Rings, one of the rare franchises that saw grosses improve with each movie. Hobbit has been highly-anticipated by Peter Jackson's fans and buzz has been surging. While I don't expect it to come close to The Avengers' monster opening and final gross, Hobbit still looks well-positioned to break records over its' mid-December opening and could benefit from solid word-of-mouth. Combining those, and a $500 million domestic gross and $1 billion worldwide gross should be expected.
Then there's the finale of the supernatural romance Twilight - Breaking Dawn: Part II. The first installment debuted last year to $138 million, or just shy of its' two predecessors' openings. But this isn't exactly a sign of audience deterioration (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part I only opened at 60% of its' follow-up's then-record opening weekend), as there was competition during the holiday frame that year. This one has been seeing surging buzz as well, and being a finale, it certainly will have the biggest opening weekend yet for the franchise. However, unless if buzz and tracking surge higher, this one probably won't pass Avengers' opening weekend record of $207.4 million. Still though, more than $300 million domestically and $700 million worldwide should be expected out of this.
The third and final major blockbuster of the holiday frame is the 23rd James Bond film, Skyfall. Highly-anticipated and releasing in time for the character's 50th anniversary, Skyfall has seen excellent tracking. The most recent Bond film, Quantum of Solace, was out four years ago and earned nearly $230 million stateside alone, the highest-gross yet for the franchise. With not much mainstream choices in November for adults, it would make logical sense for Skyfall to at least come close to Solace's final gross.
Animation gets into a heated duel this year as Disney and DreamWorks swap their usual release date strategies this year (they'll do it again in 2014 as well). Wreck-It Ralph opens at the start of the holidays, and the video game-style movie is highly-anticipated among the E3 and Comic-Con crowd, as well as family audiences. However, Ralph, despite looking like typical animation blockbuster material, looks quite strange for a movie done by Disney's animation unit, which has yet to prove itself again (Tangled is their only $200 million movie since the 90's). But despite being produced at a B-level studio, Ralph's bad guy-to-good guy story does remind some of 2010's Despicable Me and MegaMind, and if audiences aren't already tired of animated films this year (five have earned $140 million or more this year), then Ralph stands a great chance at succeeding.
Not as safe of a bet but still looking to cash in is DreamWorks Animation's Rise of the Guardians, which debuts over Thanksgiving weekend. Not to be confused with Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole, the book adaptation is also picking up in buzz, and is the studio's first original effort since MegaMind two years before. I think Guardians has a better chance of breaking out because one, while its' not exactly Christmas-centric, it still has Santa, and that could portray some good sustainability throughout December. Also, the film has been receiving rave reviews at the screenings it has done so far, which should help interest spike higher. Promotion has been all over the place, and while its' more darker premise probably won't allow it to reach Tangled's $70 million five-day opening, it could at least come close. If it could only take the top spot from Twilight, we'll have to wait and see on that one.
Other mid-range hits include Lincoln, the latest from Steven Spielberg. Shot in my home state of Virginia, the historical drama has been getting quite a bit of strong buzz as of late. And with not many choices for older audiences, Lincoln could benefit from awards-season buzz to become a major hit. Also looking to capitalize on awards season is musical adaptation Les Miserables, which debuts on Christmas Day. With already a lot of attention on Anne Hathaway's emotional performance of "I Dream A Dream", plus the enormous popularity the play has, this could be the next Mamma Mia! (which earned nearly $160 million in the U.S. four and a half years back). Oscar-winning director Ang Lee also gets into the act with book adaptation Life of Pi, which is hoping to be this year's Hugo ($75 million). With a PG rating on it, the movie could bring in families not interested in cartoons, but its' a much tougher sell than Rise of the Guardians and like last year (which had three major family flicks), Pi could very well underwhelm. But awards season buzz could keep it going to a final gross in the same range as Hugo. Silver Linings Playbook is also getting some awards season buzz. And with Hunger Games star Jennifer Lawrence and The Hangover star Bradley Cooper headlining, this could also be a leggy hit through the holidays.
Quentin Tarantino gets behind the camera again for western Django Unchained, which has been anticipated for some time now too. Starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Jamie Foxx, the movie hopes to be like 2010's True Grit, which was the sleeper hit of the 2010 holiday season ($24 million opening, $160 million finish). This one does look a bit more violent in nature, so I don't expect a similar gross, but a $100+ million run looks to be in the cards at this point. Tom Cruise has had a mixed bag for his career's resurgence, last year had a blockbuster with Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, but this past summer had a flop with Rock of Ages. This Christmas, he's Jack Reacher, which seems to have similar action elements to Mission. But the former was part of an already-famous franchise while this movie is an original take and franchise bait. Fans of Cruise could still come out enough to make this a success, but this is one of the more questionable movies of the season (meaning its' tough to predict).
Judd Apatow also gets into the act with his latest comedy This is 40, as does Seth Rogen with The Guilt Trip (they both open the same week). Both movies are also questionable considering that Rogen has yet to have a major hit and Apatow is not a proven draw (Bridesmaids is the only real blockbuster of his directorial career). Robert Zemeckis and Denzel Washington team up for Flight, and despite Washington's near-impeccable track record, this does look different compared to his recent efforts, and its' getting a release in less than 2,000 theaters. Disney is re-releasing Monsters, Inc. in 3D, and despite it opening in promotion for the highly-anticipated prequel, Monsters University and there's not much competition, 3D re-releases have been on a downward trend (Finding Nemo hit the low mark for re-issues with $40 million). Billy Crystal and Bette Midler are al
Finally, martial arts action flick The Man with the Iron Fists, baseball dramedy Playing for Keeps, action thrillers Killing Them Softly and Zero Dark Thirty and war drama Red Dawn are all looking like worst-class. Iron Fists is in a tough-sell category, and releases on a very competitive weekend, despite boasting Russell Crowe as a lead. Keeps stars Gerard Butler, who is coming off a disappointment with Chasing Mavericks, and opening on the first weekend of December is not a good weekend to release a film. Brad Pitt headlines Softly, which is opening post-Thanksgiving, a weekend moviegoers usually ignore. Zero is currently in debate for either limited or wide release, and it hasn't been promoted enough. Red Dawn boasts Chris Hemsworth and Josh Hutcherson as lead roles, but it looks like it probably will be inconsequential to the stiff competition.
