The obvious winner of the four new releases is action sequel The Expendables 2. Boasting perhaps one of the best ensemble casts ever, with Sylvester Stallone, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Dolph Lundgren, Chuck Norris, Terry Crews, Randy Couture, Liam Hemsworth, Jean Claude-Van-Damme, Bruce Willis, and the legendary Arnold Schwarzenegger, the sequel has built up quite a huge fanbase and anticipation appears to be huge. Its' predecessor opened to $34 million on its' way to just north of $100 million stateside, but its' rare a sequel will do much better business. So far, critical reception has been decent, but the returning cast and the added starpower could easily bring in audiences. The Bourne Legacy will provide competition. Analysts are currently forecasting a mid-40's millions debut for the film, but I'm going to go a bit lower and say The Expendables 2 will shoot up about $38 million for its' opening weekend in over 3,200 theaters, on its' way to around the same as its' predecessor.
Second in line is the first of three animated movies this year that definitely qualify in the "creepy" category, ParaNorman. Coming from Focus Features and the creators of Coraline (which was a success in 2009 with $75 million domestically), the film has had an extensive marketing campaign for the past year. Critical reception has been surprisingly positive, and with Ice Age: Continental Drift starting to leave theaters, older kids will be looking for something new to see. Plus, with no animated competition until Finding Nemo's 3D re-release on September 14, it should see some solid legs. On the downside, it is a bit early to release a Halloween-themed animated film, and the creepy-looking animation and monsters will keep the under-10 group at home. Plus it will have to split its' audience with The Odd Life of Timothy Green this weekend. Opening in 3,100 locations, ParaNorman should take third place this weekend with a solid $18 million, on its' way to perhaps $60 million stateside.
Aiming for the older-teen and adult crowd is musical drama Sparkle. Starring the acting debut of American Idol's Jordin Sparks, the film is notable for being the final appearance of the legendary Whitney Houston, who unexpectedly passed away six months ago. Being released by TriStar Pictures, it hasn't exactly seen a lot of promotion and critical reception hasn't been very good. But with the presence of Houston and Sparks, the film could have a decent turn-out. The musical genre, however, is a mixed bag, with Rock of Ages bombing earlier this year. Opening in just over 2,200 theaters, look for Sparkle to earn fifth place and $14 million over the weekend, on its' way to around $40 million stateside, perhaps more if it can benefit from positive word-of-mouth.
The last new release and already playing in theaters is also aiming for family audiences, drama The Odd Life of Timothy Green. Starring Jennifer Garner and Joel Edgerton, Disney has given the film a nice marketing campaign, and anticipation seems modest. However, the movie has enough trouble trying to compete against ParaNorman and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3, which appeal more towards kids, whereas Timothy Green doesn't exactly carry that "excitement" factor that would make them want to see it. Plus, critical reception has been negative and it will burn off some demand with its' Wednesday opening. Kid-oriented films do tend to struggle in August, with Cats & Dogs 2, Spy Kids 4 and Nanny McPhee Returns only opening to $8-$12 million, a range Timothy Green will likely land in. If word-of-mouth is positive, then it should at least play for the remainder of the summer. Now playing in 2,551 theaters, Timothy Green should find itself in seventh place and earn $10 million this weekend, with around $13 million since its' Wednesday start, and on its' way to around $35-$40 million domestically.
Competition will be fierce for The Bourne Legacy, and word-of-mouth doesn't seem to be all that positive. A 50% drop to $19 million would give the film $70 million in 10 days. The Campaign will fill in the last vacant Top 5 spot, and hold decently since there are no other R-rated comedies on the market. A 45% drop would give it $15.5 million, for a 10-day tally of an okay $53 million.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: The Dark Knight Rises ($10.5 million, -42%)
#8: Hope Springs ($9 million, -35%)
#9: Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ($4 million, -50%)
#10: Ice Age: Continental Drift ($3.5 million, -46%)
