Out of both new releases, pricey action flick Total Recall seems to have the best chance to beat The Dark Knight Rises. The film has had some nice promotion going for it for the last few months, but so far, buzz and critical reception has been mixed. Dark Knight will steal some audience this weekend, and there's still a chance some audiences may be hesitant on returning to theaters this weekend, and The Bourne Legacy will likely steal its' thunder next weekend. At a reported $200 million budget, the film will likely have to look to overseas grosses to make a significant profit. On a positive side, the cast does boast mild starpower with Colin Farrell, Kate Beckinsdale, and Jessica Biel, all of which have had some success stories in their career, and the sci-fi effects will likely take in teenagers who aren't interested in superheroes. Opening in over 3,400 theaters, look for Total Recall to shoot up $28 million for its' opening weekend, on its' way to around $75 million stateside.
Also opening this weekend is threequel Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, the third installment in the popular Diary of a Wimpy Kid movie series, and based on the third and fourth entries of the famous book series. The previous two films had solid numbers, the original Diary opened to $21 million on its' way to nearly $65 million, while Rodrick Rules opened to $25 million and the #1 spot last Spring, but was front-loaded, finishing just north of $50 million. Still though, at budgets of $25 million or less, these have been easy moneymakers for distributor 20th Century Fox. And with such a short time span between films, the fanbase is still very much interested. Promotion has been high and with Ice Age 4 dropping below $10 million this weekend, competition isn't too fierce. ParaNorman and The Odd Life of Timothy Green could steal some of its' audience in a couple of weeks, but with stronger weekday business, this should easily at least come close to its' predecessors. Negative critical reception won't be a factor. Opening in around 3,100 theaters, Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 should debut to a solid $22 million, on its' way to around $55-$60 million.
Even though it will have competition to deal with, The Dark Knight Rises is starting to recover, and probably will hold on to the top spot for a third-straight weekend. Audiences are slowly returning to multiplexes, so a 50% drop to $31 million would give the film a huge $351 million in 17 days, but still lagging behind the pace of its' predecessor. Ice Age: Continental Drift will have to deal with Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3, but should still hold well as it will keep its' focus more on younger children. A 40% dip to $8 million would give it $131 million in 24 days. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be The Watch, which will suffer from its' dismal audience and critical reception. A 55% crash to $6 million would give the ensemble R-rated comedy a disappointing $25 million in 10 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Step Up Revolution ($5.5 million, -53%)
#7: Ted ($4.5 million, -39%)
#8: The Amazing Spider-Man ($4 million, -40%)
#9: Brave ($2.7 million, -36%)
#10: Magic Mike ($1.3 million, -50%)
