Of course, the beginning of September means everything falls back down to earth this weekend. While there's a solid opener likely, overall business won't come anywhere near this same weekend last year, which was fueled by the record-shattering debut of IT ($123.4 million). Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: The Nun ($30 million)
Warner Bros. has successfully launched horror flicks in the past few years. Ultimately, buzz for this one is pretty good right now. Add to the fact that there hasn't really been a horror flick that has excited audiences as of late, and this should do pretty solidly in its debut. Warner Bros. is looking for a fifth-straight weekend at #1.
#2: Crazy Rich Asians ($13 million, -41%)
After a couple of crazy awesome holds, I am unsure of how well this adaptation will hold now that Labor Day has passed. I think it will have one of the better holds of the list, and a double-feature (though it would be an odd one) with Nun would boost it. However, it's still in amazing financial shape even if my forecast seems a bit generous.
#3: Peppermint ($9 million)
Jennifer Garner's latest has received a heavy marketing campaign by distributor STX Entertainment. The R-rated actioner does seem like a different movie in the marketplace, as its like The Equalizer with a female lead. However, buzz overall has been lacking. And Garner isn't a major box office draw to begin with. I think high-single digits to maybe $10 million is a safe bet at this point.
#4: The Meg ($5.5 million, -48%)
Honestly, I don't think Disney has had three films in the Top 5 before. Warner Bros. will have that accomplishment this weekend. The shark thriller will likely hold fourth by default, however, as there's really no other strong opener in this list. And, being a summer-themed film, its guaranteed to have one of the heaviest drops of this list.
#5: Mission: Impossible - Fallout ($4 million, -43%)
Tom Cruise should be able to keep this one moving in its seventh frame. Rogue Nation was off 43% in the post-Labor Day Weekend, I would expect something similar here.
#6 (tie): Searching ($3.5 million, -42%)
With strong word-of-mouth, this indie thriller will do one of two things. One, it will expand and hold itself together even better than I expect. Or two, it will probably settle around a 40% drop. I'm going to bet on the latter.
#6 (tie): Operation Finale ($3.5 million, -42%)
It's going to be another neck-and-neck fight for the two sophomore films this weekend, but older audiences should help this World War II thriller keep its drop below 50%.
#8: Christopher Robin ($3 million, -43%)
Family films usually suffer some of the worst drops of the Top 10 after Labor Day. I don't expect this to hold well. But there's no competition until Smallfoot at the end of September. I can see it holding around the 45% range if its lucky. Maybe I'm a bit too generous here.
#9: God Bless the Broken Road ($2.7 million)
This particular film has had several delays, as Pure Flix hasn't quite figured out what to do with it. Extra competition next week from a sequel to the war drama Unbroken won't help matters either. That being said, Christian and faith-based audiences haven't had something to see since the Spring season. This may overperform a bit.
#10: BlackKklansman ($2.5 million, -41%)
Spike Lee's awards season contender is the one film on this list I may have predicted too heavy of a drop. It could hold better than I am expecting it right now. But it is rare that films can be immune to the post-Labor Day blues.
