Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Looking at Next Summer...

With summer 2018 over, its' time to take a peek at what's going on next summer. Of course, anything can change between now and then, so its possible one or two films might move. Let's take a look at next summer by month:

May

May kicks off with what will likely be the biggest movie of the summer. Avengers 4 (official title to be revealed later, May 3). The jaw-dropping cliffhanger ending of Infinity War plus the clever idea to release Captain Marvel ahead of time promises that this one may be another record-setter. Reaching Infinity War's $258 million record opening may seem like a tall hurdle. But, if it can properly build up momentum and anticipation, it could beat it. It's looking to potentially be a $2 billion grosser as well.

Second weekend of May brings four films. Families currently have two options to choose from. As of now, the first live-action Pokemon movie, Detective Pikachu, is set (though with the distributor recently changed to Warner Bros., it may move). Fans have been looking forward to this, though many question the casting of Ryan Reynolds to voice Pikachu. This may be a decent hit, but it will depend on how it's marketed. Also planned to open is an animated effort from STX Entertainment, an adaptation of Uglydolls with music stars Nick Jonas and Kelly Clarkson involved. I would not expect much from this, unless it really strikes a chord like Trolls did.

Romance thriller The Rosie Project will likely be a toss-up, while the week's other possible contender is a remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels starring Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson. Nicknamed The Hustle, it should pull in solid business for females not interested in superheroes.

Meanwhile, three more releases join the fray on May 17. The biggest possible hit of the list is action thriller John Wick 3: Parabellum. 2017's John Wick - Chapter 2 was a surprise hit at nearly $100 million stateside. Similar to last year's Equalizer 2, this is an R-rated sequel that will probably successfully pull in the male demographic. Meanwhile, teenage romance The Sun is Also a Star, based on a New York Times bestseller, will try to repeat the success of last year's Crazy Rich Asians. But the Warner Bros. release doesn't seem to have that same unique feel. Finally, sequel A Dog's Journey follows a couple years after A Dog's Purpose was a decent-sized hit in the midst of controversy. It might earn a little bit of money, but this doesn't seem like a sequel people were asking for.

May 24 brings one of the summer's biggest wildcards, as Disney unleashes its' Aladdin remake. It's hoping to replicate the success of Beauty and the Beast from 2017. But, its' been plagued by whitewashing controversy, and people haven't been a big fan of Will Smith taking on the Genie role. However, the 1992 cartoon is among the most beloved of Disney's catalog, so expect the film to still have some anticipation behind it (especially if it turns out to be good). Competing against Disney is comedy Stuber, starring Dave Bautista, Kumail Nainjani, and Mira Sorvino. Unless it strikes a chord in marketing, I don't expect this to post anything more than modest numbers.


June

I'm counting May 31 as part of June as most of these film's opening weekend land in the month of June. The big release here is action sequel Godzilla: King of the Monsters. Warner Bros. has been steadily building a monster-verse with King Kong, leading to a battle between the two monsters next year. The first Godzilla was a moderate success, and was more of a hit overseas. The sequel got some buzz going thanks to a solid trailer, but I'm not sure if it can live up to its' predecessors' $200 million gross stateside.

Also opening is Elton John biopic Rocketman, which seems unique enough to possibly be a breakout. Finally, an unknown Blumhouse horror flick opens and might be a minor hit if it stays on this date.

The biggest opening on June 7 right now is an animated sequel, The Secret Life of Pets 2. The first Pets movie was a massive hit, earning over $850 million worldwide. If the sequel turns out to be good, it could approach or pass that number. Competition on that date includes Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron in their comedy Flarsky. Could be the case of one comedy too much over the past few weeks.

June 14 features a battle of two reboots. The most ambitious of the two is a MIB (Men in Black) reboot with Chris Hemsworth (a.k.a. Thor) and Tessa Thompson. F. Gary Gray directs. I'm not sure if anyone wanted a reboot like this. I'm sure Sony is hoping this doesn't turn into Ghostbusters and be a money loser for them. Debuting against it is Shaft, a sequel/reboot to the 2000 action comedy starring Samuel L. Jackson. That film was a modest success, though opening directly against the Men in Black will be a tough assignment. Perhaps an R rating (like its predecessor) will help prevent chances of cannibalization.

June 21 brings what could be a blockbuster, or simply just a hit. Toy Story 4 finally debuts after being delayed twice. Pixar has clearly had story problems here, and original director John Lasseter has been fired from Pixar due to recent allegations. These might hinder the film from reaching the heights of Toy Story 3's $1 billion gross (and many fans are still confused as to why this film exists because the third film really was seen as a conclusion of sorts to the franchise). But, the popularity of these characters should give this film terrific numbers regardless.

June ends with two different films. First is autobiographical drama Ford v. Ferrari, with Christian Bale and Matt Damon starring along with James Mangold (Logan) directing. In the midst of all summer blockbusters, I think this one might break out. It will be competing against shark sequel 48 Meters Down, a sequel to 2017's surprise hit 47 Meters Down. Shark films have been popular lately, so don't be surprised if this sequel becomes another profitable success.



July

Starting off July is what might be one of the surefire hits. Spider-Man: Far From Home follows one of the more well-received Spider-Man films, as Homecoming earned $900 million worldwide. And coming off of appearing in Avengers 4 (probably?), I would expect this to have a bump possibly to $1 billion stateside. Now, is sequel fatigue a possibility stateside? Yes. But, again, Marvel has probably the best track record right now. It's really hard to bet against it. Competing against Spidey is a (right now unnamed) sequel to Annabelle: Creation. Horror flicks tend to do well over 4th of July, don't be surprised if this one proves to be solid counter-programming.

July 12 is a quiet week, as Tom Cruise's Top Gun sequel moved to Summer 2020. Instead, we get Chadwick Boseman in action thriller 17 Bridges. Coming off his newfound popularity in Black Panther, don't be surprised if this overperforms. But July 19 will bring what could be another surefire hit. Disney has two live-action remakes in one summer with a remake of The Lion King set. Jon Favreau, coming off of critical acclaim and positive audience word-of-mouth in The Jungle Book remake, is directing. Though some cast members have had mixed reception to their casting, the visual effects will probably be the selling point here. Lion King is widely regarded as one of the best Disney movies of all-time. If this one turns out to be good, it will be hard to stop.

July 26 will bring Quentin Tarantino back with his crime thriller Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Featuring big names like Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie and Burt Reynolds, this movie looks to rope in adults. Usually Tarantino goes for fall and awards season, but distributor Sony has confidence that this will pull in strong summer numbers. They may be right. Speaking of Sony, right now they have two movies on this date. The second is a Chinese animated flick called Wish Dragon starring Jackie Chan. I'm not sure if this one will stick with the date, otherwise it might get lost under Lion King's shadow.


August

Warner Bros. currently has an event film scheduled for August 2, but unless a surprise is revealed, this will probably not end up being the case. Also scheduled right now is Fox and Marvel's The New Mutants, which is heavily rumored to possibly not be released at all (as Fox and its Marvel assets prepares to move to Disney). If it will be released, I think it will probably move.

The two movies likely to release and compete against each other are Fast and Furious' spin-off Hobbs and Shaw, and TV series adaptation Dora the Explorer. The first of these will star Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Jason Statham as their famous characters from the Furious movies. It looks to likely be a decent sized hit. Meanwhile, Dora has received a bit of backlash for introducing a teenage, live-action version of the preschool character. However, if its done right, it might could strike a chord with families.

Disney re-enters the game again on August 9 with their book adaptation Artemis Fowl currently the only film scheduled for release. Director Kenneth Branagh, in his first of two movies this year, helms with Josh Gad, Judi Dench, and Hong Chau starring. This could surprise if fans of the book turn out. August 16 will feature three mid-majors. A remake of The Grudge could go either way, while an R-rated comedy about 12 year olds titled Good Boys will try to pull in adult audiences, and looks like a too risky concept. Finally, an animated version of Playmobil hits the screen, and unless if it hits a stride in marketing, probably won't make much of an impact.

Finally on August 23 (there are no films set for Labor Day Weekend), Sony attempts to bring in the faith-based crowd with Overcomer. This is the follow-up to the surprise 2015 hit War Room (which earned $70 million stateside) for directors Alex and Stephen Kendrick. With audiences anticipating their next film, I would not be surprised if this approached or possibly surpassed that movie's numbers.


And that's it for the summer preview. Of course, more in-depth previews of 2019 will be at the end of this year. Until then, lets take on the rest of 2018, shall we? ;)