Thanks to strength from a major holdover, business should be up from this same weekend in 2015.
Here are the predictions for this weekend (Top 10):
#1: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($44 million, -51%)
#2: The Revenant ($24 million)
#3: Daddy's Home ($15.5 million, -47%)
#4: The Hateful Eight ($10.5 million, -33%)
#5: Sisters ($7.5 million, -42%)
#6: The Forest ($7 million)
#7: Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip ($6.5 million, -46%)
Joy ($6.5 million, -36%)
#9: The Big Short ($6 million, -34%)
#10: Concussion ($5 million, -36%)
The Revenant is benefiting from strong critical reception (80% on Rotten Tomatoes), and a strong limited start. Last years Best Picture and Best Director recipient Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman) has developed quite a following, and Leonardo DiCaprio's lead performance is also a strong contender for Best Actor. There is a chance, like The Hateful Eight before it, that the film will be more backloaded due to the Oscar nominations not being announced until the 14th. But, I think it will outdo Tarantino's latest.
The Forest has had barely any marketing effort. But being the first horror flick since Krampus could help it out. Reviews haven't come in yet (not a good sign), and opening so early in January isn't always a good thing. Look for the low-end of the average range for horror flicks ($7-11 million).
Star Wars: The Force Awakens will easily remain #1 (for possibly the final time) as it crashes through $800 million this weekend. However, with kids back in school and fans/college students rushing out over Christmas break, it will likely drop above 50% this weekend. Daddy's Home and Alvin and the Chipmunk: The Road Chip will also drop around 50% as a result of kids returning to school and adults returning to work.
Better holds for the frame will go to more adult-oriented fare. Possible Oscar contenders such as The Big Short and The Hateful Eight should have the strongest holds out of the bunch. Concussion and Joy should also hold decently, as should Sisters, which will benefit from no added competition for females.
