Box office continues to get off to a very strong start for 2016.
The Revenant is 2016's first major breakout hit. The possible Oscar contender from last year's Best Director Alejandro G. Inarritu blew past expectations with a huge $14.4 million opening day. That compares very favorably to Lone Survivor, which opened to the exact same number on its opening Friday on this same weekend from 2014. And while Survivor didn't have quite as much Oscar buzz (it earned a couple of technical nods), it still managed $38 million on its opening weekend. Unless the NFL on Sunday really cuts into its business, I'm going to guess the same thing for Revenant: $38 million.
That of course means that Star Wars: The Force Awakens has dropped back to second place for the first time in its run. But, it could still pull out the weekend win. Not surprisingly, it fell 69% from last Friday (which was New Year's Day) to $10.9 million, and it has already amassed $781.1 million in just 22 days! (it passed Avatar for the biggest gross ever domestically on Wednesday) If it follows a similar trajectory to recent blockbusters, it will wind up around $40 million for the frame, which will rank as the second-biggest fourth weekend behind Avatar. It does seem like, however, that the force is finally starting to wind down.
Opening in third place with solid numbers was the other new release, horror flick The Forest. The indie release opened to $5 million. In comparison, The Woman in Black 2 opened to $7.7 million last January on its way to a $15 million opening weekend. A similar trajectory here would give The Forest a $10 million start, if not slightly larger. That would be a little bit ahead of expectations, which had projected an opening in the $8 million range.
Daddy's Home will likely overtake The Forest for third place on the weekend, but it plummeted 63% from New Year's Day (not surprisingly) to $4.2 million. It should make it to around $15 million for the frame. Sisters rounded out the Top 5 in its fourth frame, off 52% to $2.3 million, in what should be a weekend of around $7 million.
Weekend numbers coming tomorrow. One reminder, I post a Friday report if the opening day of a movie is above $10 million.
