The web-slinging hero is back!! Just 10 weeks after The Avengers took the marketplace by storm, The Amazing Spider-Man arrives in theaters hoping to live up to the successes of the original Sam Raimi blockbuster trilogy. Those three movies, which featured Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man, grossed $403 million, $367 million and $336 million domestically, and are the third, fourth, and fifth biggest-grossing superhero movies ever. However, being a reboot, some audiences may not be interested in seeing the story start all over again (though the villain Lizardman has not been featured in any Spider-Man movies to date). A couple of other obstacles include distributor Columbia Pictures' decision to open it on a Tuesday, which will burn off quite a lot of demand before the weekend. Finally, the superhero epic will have to face The Dark Knight Rises in a couple of weeks, which may be the time bomb that will destroy all other films. Still though, the 4th of July weekend is still a huge weekend to debut a potential blockbuster, and this film has enough anticipation alone that it will still become a huge hit. And 3D surcharges and positive reviews from critics should help as well. Opening in over 4,000 theaters, look for Spider-Man to build a web worth $130 million over the six-day period, with $72 million coming from the three-day weekend and between $55 and $60 million coming from the Tuesday-Thursday period. It should then go on to finish with around $275 million stateside.
Meanwhile, debuting on Thursday, in the tradition of Justin Bieber, Hannah Montana, and Michael Jackson, Katy Perry gets into the 3D concert act with Katy Perry: Part of Me. Among recent 3D concerts, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never has been the biggest-grosser, tallying nearly $75 million, while Michael Jackson's This Is It and Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds earned $69 million and $65 million. So how does this female artist compare with them? She is popular, and she's gotten five #1 hits on the all-genre chart so far. Plus, the summer release date and PG rating might make it an alternative for family audiences (though Brave and Spider-Man will likely be the only main choices for families). Thus, its' all going to come down to how bustling Perry's fanbase is, and reviews will likely not be a factor. Opening in around 2,500 theaters, expect Katy Perry 3D to open to a solid $16 million over the three-day weekend, ranking in fifth place, and around $20 million since its' Thursday opening. It should then play like a concert film and go on to gross around $45-$50 million by the time it leaves theaters.
Finally, debuting on Friday, Oliver Stone releases his latest with ensemble action flick Savages. Starring Taylor Kitsch (who has had a disastrous start to his career with action flops John Carter and Battleship), Blake Lively, Salma Hayek, and John Travolta, the film has been receiving some buzz, as it hopes to counter-program the major action flicks being released this year. Distributor Universal Pictures is hoping to have a similar hit to earlier this years' Safe House, but that one had Denzel Washington, one of the most reliable stars in today's movies. Critics so far have been giving it rave reviews, but the studio hasn't really given this a good marketing push, so expectations are pretty low at this point. Opening in over 2,800 theaters, Savages should manage an eighth place debut of around $7 million, on its' way to around $20 million stateside.Debuting with much bigger results than expected, Ted will have to run for its' life in the face of a superhero, but should still post a solid hold in its' face. Expect a 45% second weekend drop to second place and around $30 million, pushing Seth McFarlane's theatrical debut to $102 million in just 10 days. Magic Mike saw an unbelievably front-loaded weekend, but the positive reception from critics should keep its' drop to more reasonable levels. A 55% decline to around $17.5 million would give the other R-rated comedy fourth place for the weekend and a $72 million 10-day total.
With Mike expected to drop hard in its' second weekend, Brave is well-positioned to hold on to the third spot in its' third weekend. And despite The Amazing Spider-Man taking away some potential audience, the positive word-of-mouth should help it see a much lower decline this weekend. A 35% ease to $22.5 million would give Pixar's latest $173 million in 17 days. As for Madea's Witness Protection, the 4th of July frame should help it hold a bit better than what Perry's track record suggests, so a 55% drop to $12 million would give it sixth place for the weekend and a 10-day total of $48 million.
Here is the rest of the projected Top 10:
#7: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted ($7.5 million, -37%)
#9: Moonrise Kingdom ($3.5 million, -29%)
#10: Snow White and the Huntsman ($2.6 million, -41%)
