The film with the best chance at taking the #1 spot is musical adaptation Rock of Ages. Boasting a strong cast, including Tom Cruise, Mary J. Blige, Russell Brand, Paul Giamatti, and Julianne Hough, there has been some anticipation for this, but nowhere near what The Avengers or Snow White and the Huntsman had. Musicals have succeeded at the box office, with Mamma Mia and Hairspray opening with $27 million on their debuts, on their way to over $100 million stateside. Rock of Ages is just as popular of a musical, and it seems obvious that it would be able to put up those same numbers. But the female audience it is going for will have both Madagascar 3 and Snow White and the Huntsman to compete against. Also, the film has been recieving negative reviews from critics, which certainly won't help either. Opening in over 3,300 theaters, I'd expect Rock of Ages to debut with a good, but not great $26 million, on its' way to about $85-$90 million stateside. With those numbers, the film will likely wind up in second place to Madagascar 3.
The other new release is the latest from comedian Adam Sandler in R-rated comedy That's My Boy. Unfortunately, anticipation hasn't been in the range of similar Sandler comedies, as his fans are coming off one of his lower-grossing efforts, the family-targeted Jack & Jill. Still, despite that and negative reviews, Sandler still is one of the most bankable stars in Hollywood today, and it wouldn't be surprising if this ended up doing better than expected. Plus, there hasn't been any R-rated comedies this summer by far, and those kinds of films really do well in the summer (as evidenced by last year's Bridesmaids, Bad Teacher, and Horrible Bosses). Debuting in over 3,000 theaters, That's My Boy should earn around $25 million this weekend, on the low-end for a Sandler comedy, but still in the race for second place with Rock of Ages. It should then go on to gross around $70 million stateside.
Following its' huge opening last weekend, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted is more than set to win the box office race again this coming weekend. The animated threequel has been recieving very positive word-of-mouth (as evidenced by its' "A" CinemaScore), and should benefit from no competition this weekend for its' audience. Its' weekday business has been the same as Kung Fu Panda, which ended up dropping 44% in its' second weekend. I'm going to guess Madagascar 3 will drop about 40% in its' second frame to $36 million, for a solid $123 million tally in 10 days.
Prometheus, on the other hand, hasn't been recieving as good word-of-mouth. It's front-loaded opening weekend certainly doesn't bode well down the road, but some analysts are counter-attacking saying that discussion is high for this film, which could cause some people on the fence to end up seeing it. But the sci-fi genre in general is famous for being extremely front-loaded, so a 60% drop should be in order. That would give Ridley Scott's latest $20.5 million for its' second weekend, bringing its' 10-day total to a less impressive $87 million.
Snow White and the Huntsman will round out the Top 5, and should hold a bit better than last frame. A 50% third weekend drop would result in $11.5 million and bring its' 17-day total to $120 million.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Men in Black III ($8 million, -43%)
#7: The Avengers ($7 million, -38%)
#8: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($2.5 million, -34%)
#9: What To Expect When You're Expecting ($1.6 million, -40%)
#10: Moonrise Kingdom ($1.2 million, -25%)
