One of this year's highest-anticipated films (in terms of rabid fanbases) is Ridley Scott's long-awaited return to the sci-fi genre with Prometheus. Starring Noomi Rapace, Michael Fassbender, and Charlize Theron, it looks like a prequel to the 1980's sci-fi classic Alien, but Scott has proclaimed that it isn't. But the trailers have excited audiences so far, and with the overwhelmingly high buzz and strong starpower, it looks like it could be the summers' biggest opener since The Avengers. However, there are a few factors that will keep it from becoming a blockbuster. One, there is a lot of competition out there, with last weeks' winner Snow White and the Huntsman, Men in Black III, and even six-week old Avengers still looking to pull in $10 million or more this weekend. Also, the film carries an R rating, which will scare off teenagers that would usually see this kind of film. Mixed critical reception won't help either, and may shorten its' chances at having strong playability (sci-fi films usually are very front-loaded anyway). With 3D boosting sales, opening in over 3,300 theaters, Prometheus should debut with a strong $58 million, on its' way to about $135 million domestically.
Counter-programming against Prometheus is animated threequel Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted, which arrives three and a half years after Escape 2 Africa. That sequel opened to a strong $63 million, but was surprisingly front-loaded and finished with $180 million, down slightly from the first Madagascar's $195 million gross, but becoming a huge hit overseas with $600 million worldwide. On the strong side, there hasn't been any animated flicks in theaters in over a month. Also, family films have succeeded this year so far, with The Lorax opening to an unprecedented $70 million on its' way to over $200 million, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island outwitted past trajectories for a family sequel with over $100 million. But DreamWorks has been in a slump over the last few years, with their films only opening in the $40's millions range, and animated sequels (as of recently) have fallen 25% or more from their predecessors. And with the highly-anticipated Brave releasing in just a couple of weeks, its' chances at legs will be cut short. Opening in over 4,000 theaters, Madagascar 3 should earn a decent $45 million for its' debut, on its' way to just over $150 million stateside.
After topping last weekend, Snow White and the Huntsman will likely settle for third place in its' second outing. There is no additional competition for the female audience, but with mixed critical and audience reception, its' not enough to guarantee a solid hold. Look for a 50% drop to $28 million, bringing its' 10-day total to a strong $105 million. Men in Black III will have to compete against Prometheus, but teenagers that are scared away by the R rating might choose this as an alternative. A 45% drop to $15.5 million would give the action threequel a good, but not great $137 million in 17 days. The Avengers should round out the Top 5 in its' sixth outing, and should continue to hold itself together despite more competition. A 40% drop to $12.5 million would give the superhero ensemble $575 million in 37 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($3 million, -34%)
#7: What To Expect When You're Expecting ($2.7 million, -39%)
#8: Battleship ($2.5 million, -52%)
#9: The Dictator ($2.4 million, -48%)
#10: Moonrise Kingdom ($2 million)
