Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions for June 1-3, 2012

Based on my projections, it doesn't look like the box office is going to re-surge from last year...

The only new release this weekend is the fantasy action flick and to a lesser extent, fairy tale adaptation Snow White and the Huntsman.  Starring Kristen Stewart (Twilight movies), Chris Hemsworth (Thor) and Charlize Theron, the film has been moderately-anticipated since the first trailer was released back last November.  The second of two Snow White movies this year (the first being the more family-friendly Mirror Mirror which is set to close with about $65 million), this one will likely beat that gross within at least a week.  The only thing holding it back is that The Avengers is still taking away audiences from other pics (reason why Dark Shadows, Battleship, and Men in Black III didn't open as high as what studios were expecting), and should at least earn another $20 million this weekend.  Still though, with nothing really catering to Twilight's audience so far, this could still break out.  Tracking as of now is solid, but unspectacular, though promotion has been high and anticipation seems high, but nowhere near the fan craze of similar films.  Opening in over 3,700 theaters, look for Snow White to take in $52 million for its' debut, and it should go on to leave theaters with around $120 million.


Men in Black III, following its' $69.3 million four-day weekend is hoping to see the strong legs that benefited the first Men in Black, something that is actually possible considering the positive word-of-mouth surrounding it.  Snow White isn't a big threat because male audiences will likely choose this over the fantasy tale.  I think a 45% drop is in order, giving the threequel $30 million on its' second weekend, and bringing its' 10-day total to a solid $117 million.

The Avengers will continue to hold on in third place, and it should hold well again this weekend as Snow White will only take the female audience.  A 40% fifth weekend drop to $22 million should give the superhero blockbuster an unbelievable $555 million in one month of release.  Battleship may also hold better this weekend due to the same reasons, so a 45% ease to roughly $6 million would give the supposed board game adaptation a stale $59 million in 17 days.  Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be The Dictator, which probably doesn't have much longer before it will start leaving theaters.  A 45% ease to over $5 million would give the Sacha Baron Cohen comedy $53 million in 17 days.

Here's the rest of the Top 10:

#6: What To Expect When You're Expecting ($4.5 million, -37%)
#7: Dark Shadows ($4 million, -45%)
#8: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($3.5 million, -46%)
#9: Chernobyl Diaries ($3 million, -64%)
#10: Moonrise Kingdom ($2 million)