Still though, based on recent tracking, Men in Black III is well-positioned to debut in the top spot, though its' questionable how much it will gross. The last two weekends haven't been very strong, with both Dark Shadows and Battleship underperforming, and one might think this won't reverse the trend. But, not so fast. This threequel may arrive a decade after the second film, but the film series does have its' fanbase. The original Men in Black grossed a huge $250 million domestically back in 1997 (which would equal over $450 million, adjusted for inflation), while the second one earned $190 million. Certainly the nostalgia factor will be in full effect this weekend, and the 3D will help boost grosses as well. Action flicks tend to do strong business over an extended weekend, and this probably won't be an exception. Debuting in around 4,000 theaters, look for MIB3 to shoot up a solid $52 million over the three-day period, and $66 million over the extended frame. It should then go on to gross roughly $150 million domestically, against a $200 million budget. When looking at it in this case, that might not be enough to guarantee a fourth film.
The other new release isn't looking for nearly as good of an opening. Horror flick Chernobyl Diaries is hoping to take in a similar audience to horror hits The Woman in Black and The Devil Inside. Buzz hasn't been very relevant, but the genre has proven this year that they do have a large following. But after those two aforementioned hits, Silent House bombed. But since this is the first horror film in a while, it should be able to do solid business in the face of Men in Black. Opening in over 2,450 theaters, look for Chernobyl to scare up $11 million for the three-day and $14 million over the extended weekend, slotting in fourth place. It should then crash to a finish south of $30 million.
The Avengers should continue to play well, as extended weekends are prime for movies to hold well. Expect a 45% drop to just over $30 million for the three-day, and close to $40 million for the four-day weekend, bringing its' total past $500 million. Battleship is hoping to sustain well after its' abysmal start last weekend, and it should experience a similar decline to $14 million for the three-day and $18 million for the four-day, giving it $52 million in 11 days. The Dictator should round out the Top 5, and being the only comedy on the market should help, but a "C" CinemaScore by audiences will combat its' chances of holding well. A 45% drop to $10 million should be expected, and around $13 million for the extended frame, giving it a decent $43 million in 13 days.
Also, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is expanding to over 1,100 theaters, expect results similar to Midnight in Paris.
Here's a look at the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Dark Shadows ($7.5 million three-day, -44%) ($10 million four-day)
#7: What To Expect When You're Expecting ($7 million three-day, -30%)
($9 million four-day)
#8: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($5 million 3-day, +15)
($7 million four-day)
#9: The Hunger Games ($2 million 3-day, -33%) ($2.8 million 4-day)
#10: Think Like A Man ($1.5 million 3-day, -40%) ($1.9 million 4-day)
