Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Dr. Suess' The Lorax
It had HUGE numbers last weekend, so a tip of the hat is very much necessary to Universal's marketing department. Right now, with an "A" CinemaScore and no additional competition, this is very well-positioned to be the first film of the year to repeat at the top spot. It will easily pass the $100 million mark this weekend and also will easily pass The Vow to claim first place for the year by far.
Weekend Prediction: $40 million (-43%)
Estimated 10-Day Gross: $124 million
#2: John Carter
Disney is hoping that this big-budget film will become a blockbuster. The film, produced at a ridiculously expensive $250 million, has been tracking softly for months. Now it has picked up at a modest pace since the Super Bowl, but, its' anticipation isn't anywhere near other films that usually have high expectations. One positive note is that its' the first major action film that has seen the extensive marketing campaign which has helped raise awareness, but early screenings buzz has called the film "good, but not great". The film also will try to attract family audiences, though many of them will be distracted by The Lorax. Due to all these disadvantages, its' likely this will be the first major financial bomb of the year, at least domestically.
Weekend Prediction: $32 million
Estimated Final Gross: $90 million
#3: Project X
It did open strongly last weekend, though a "B" CinemaScore and a pretty front-loaded first weekend don't show good signs for legs...
Weekend Prediction: $11.5 million (-46%)
Estimated 10-Day Gross: $42 million
#4: Silent House
Supposedly inspired by true events (NOT), this horror flick is hoping to counter-program John Carter. The good news is that there is no competition for its' audience. The bad news is that it hasn't gotten a significant marketing push by new distributor Open Road Films and its' Twitter counts are about a third of The Devil Inside's and half of The Woman in Black. Not to say this film doesn't have potential, it just looks a bit too "familiar" to break out.
Weekend Prediction: $8 million
Estimated Final Gross: $15-$20 million
#5: Act of Valor
More competition from John Carter won't help it sustain any better than last weekend, but at least its a rare hit for distributor Relativity Media.
Weekend Prediction: $7.5 million (-45%)
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $57 million
#6: A Thousand Words
Eddie Murphy has been in some sort of roadblock over the last five years. Both Meet Dave and Imagine That were financial disasters and Tower Heist was only a modest success. A comedy-drama with some sort of catch (mainly being a leaf falling off a tree every time he speaks a word), this doesn't look like something that audiences can get into. Only Murphy's dedicated fanbase will show up for this, and, trust me, it isn't as big as you think. Based on poor tracking and a lackluster marketing effort, while it certainly won't end up as costly as John Carter, I see this film bombing as well.
Weekend Prediction: $6 million
Estimated Final Gross: $15-$20 million
#7: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
It may still have The Lorax to deal with, but no additional competition for families should keep this one
going...
Weekend Prediction: $4.5 million (-33%)
Estimated 31-Day Gross: $91.5 million
#8: Safe House
This action flick is starting to wind down its' run, but its' still become one of the biggest hits in Denzel
Washington's career...
Weekend Prediction: $4 million (-46%)
Estimated 31-Day Gross: $115 million
#9: Good Deeds
Tyler Perry's drama will end up with fine numbers, even though its' on the low-end of his career...
Weekend Prediction: $3.5 million (-51%)
Estimated 17-Day Gross: $32 million
#10: This Means War
The film of many genres should still stay in the Top 10 for one more week because of better word-of-mouth
than The Vow...
Weekend Prediction: $3.3 million (-41%)
Estimated 24-Day Gross: $46.5 million
Possible change: The Vow could still stay in the Top 10 for one more week...
