The first quarter of 2012 has been rock solid, with already $2.48 billion picked up, and total revenues already over 20% ahead of 2011, but still down 5-6% from 2010. Can we expect similar results from April's line-up? Well, unless if the March holdovers really power through, it doesn't look like that April will live up to the other three months, due to a line-up that pales in comparison to the other three months...Last year, Universal's animated/live-action comedy Hop and action thriller Source Code led April to a gross of $759.6 million, down from both 2010 and 2009.
Here are some long-distance forecasts week-to-week bbased on tracking:
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April 6
Easter Weekend is bound with surprises
Launching two days prior, James Cameron sets sail back on Titanic for the first time in 3D. Launching 15 years after its' original run grossed $600 million domestic and $1.6 billion worldwide due to excellent legs and back then was the biggest-grossing film ever (before it was beaten by Cameron's Avatar 12 years later). Adjusting for price inflation, Titanic would rank second to Gone with the Wind in ticket sales. While we certainly don't expect an extra $600 million here, this 3D re-release should be able to capitalize on the fact that the film has limited home video availability. Buzz has been steeply rising and an early Wednesday release should give it some extra money. The main reason why this 3D re-release won't be a huge blockbuster is because 3D re-issues of films have been a mixed bag: The Lion King was a success at just south of $95 million, while Beauty and the Beast and Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace were more modest with $47 million and $43 million. But certainly the high anticipation alone should help its' gross to be higher than Lion King's opening and final gross.
Counter-programming against it is a revival of a long-dormant franchise. American Reunion follows nine years after American Wedding earned a franchise-low $110 million domestic (compared to the other two which earned about $130+ million). Bringing back the entire cast from all three R-rated comedies is certainly going to help, and the fact that the film series still has an avid fanbase should translate into relatively solid numbers.
Long-Distance Forecast: Titanic should eke out a victory with at least an opening in the mid-30's millions, while Reunion should settle for a second place start with around $30 million.
April 13
The second weekend of April brings three films that look to have middling performances.
Out of all three though, it looks like the Farrelly Brothers' adaptation of The Three Stooges looks like it will be the biggest-grosser. Moe, Larry and Curly have remained popular since there early days back in the 50's, and certainly nostalgic fans will show up. But even though it carries a PG rating, its' going to have to work a lot harder in its' promotional campaign to attract families.
Horror flick The Cabin in the Woods finally releases after being delayed from last Spring. Horror films have generally succeeded (with the exception of Silent House) this year, but its' difficult to tell based on its' middling tracking numbers if this will live up to The Woman in Black and The Devil Inside. Being released in 3D however should help it score an opening above $10 million.
Finally, space prison flick Lockout, which had a last-minute scheduling is hoping to counter-program both. Unfortunately, with its' main target being older teenagers, its' going to be tough for this one to break out since there will be competition from Titanic, Cabin, and a still-going Hunger Games.
Long-Distance Forecast: Titanic might rule again, unless if Stooges can outwit expectations. Cabin should score a spot in the Top 5 while Lockout will land in the lower portion of the Top 10.
April 20
Out of all three new releases, romantic drama/Nicholas Sparks film adaptation The Lucky One looks like it will do better business. Starring Zac Efron, the film will capitalize on the fact that there's been no real date night flicks (since The Vow and This Means War) as well as the popularity of Sparks novels, which should guarantee a solid opening.
Romance comedy Think Like a Man is hoping to counter-program Lucky One, but it has yet to launch an existent promotional campaign. That could hurt its' potential, perhaps a May release date might've suited it better...
The only other release is Disneynature's latest documentary, Chimpanzee. While Earth was a success back in 2009 with $32 million total, Oceans and African Cats were both disappointments with $19 million and $15 million in less theater counts. However, this one's seen a much more relevant promotion campaign, and a touching story plus good early buzz should at least get this one into the same gross range as Oceans.
Long-Distance Forecast: Lucky One should be on top for the weekend with grosses ending up in the low-20's millions, while Think Like a Man and Chimpanzee will likely end up below the Top 5.
April 27
April wraps up with four more new releases.
Jason Segel and Emily Blunt headline The Five-Year Engagement, from the director of Segel's breakout hit Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Both actors have proven they have fanbases, and the lack of R-rated romance films in the marketplace should get 21 and up date audiences out to see this. While Sarah Marshall numbers may be out of reach, it should at least be able to score good numbers based on it's promotional campaign.
3D claymation The Pirates! Band of Misfits arrives from Sony Pictures Animation and Aardman, who both delivered Arthur Christmas last November to middling results, near $50 million stateside and nearly $150 million worldwide. This one returns Aardman to what they're famous for, but audiences haven't quite turned out in good numbers for that kind of animation (Chicken Run being the only exception as both Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit and Flushed Away were only mildly successful). However, with no new competition until June, families should come out in good numbers and help this to at least come in between Arthur and Wallace & Gromit's final numbers.
Jason Statham action thriller Safe is hoping to be the next action hit, but the plot of protecting a little girl from an assassin sounds way too familiar for audiences to care. Plus, besides Statham, there's no real starpower backing him up, which may not allow this film to break out.
Finally, thriller/horror The Raven has been driving some modest buzz due to it being based upon perhaps the last days of legendary writer Edgar Allen Poe's life. But, it has yet to really get a promotional push from distributor Relativity Media. Perhaps an opening close to Haywire might be a safe target.
Long-Distance Forecast: The Five-Year Engagement will likely be on top with a low-20's millions debut, while Pirates will have to settle for second or third place with around $15 million. Safe and The Raven will likely end up either battling for fifth place or below the Top 5 with grosses in the upper single-digits millions.
