Sunday, January 29, 2012

Weekend Box Office Report: "Grey" Howls on Top...

Once again, the box office continues to be up from last year...



Liam Neeson's thriller The Grey continued his streak of hits, debuting at the top spot with $19.7 million, for a per-theater average of a solid $6,174 from around 3,500 screens at 3,185 theaters.  That was a bit off from Neeson's previous film Unknown ($21.3 million) close to this same time last year and his leggy hit Taken from 2009 ($26 million).  The opening gave distributor Open Road Films (a joint venture between Regal and AMC) their first #1 opener, in just two movies released so far (their first film, Killer Elite, wasn't a success last fall with a fifth place opening of around $9 million on its' way to $25 million).  The studio and analysts had projected an opening close to $15 million, and even that was blown away.  Its' budget was also just $25 million, indicating that this will indeed be a profitable venture, but with Super Bowl weekend next weekend and the audiences giving it mixed reception ("B-" CinemaScore grade despite positive critical reception), there's virtually no chance of it holding as well as Taken.

After topping last weekend, Underworld: Awakening slid to second place, and dropped 51% to $12.4 million in its' second weekend, for a $45 million tally in 10 days.  Believe it or not, that was the biggest second-weekend hold of the franchise, and was a much softer blow than what horror films usually have on their second weekends.  Because of this, Awakening currently boasts the biggest 10-day gross in its' franchise history.



Starting off in third place, action comedy and book adaptation One for the Money also debuted higher than what analysts were expecting.  Katherine Heigl's latest earned $11.5 million, for a per-theater average of a decent $4,207 from 2,737 theaters.  True, that was on the low-end for Heigl's career, but it still was able to take advantage of distributor Lionsgate's Groupon deal to sell more tickets.  As a result, Money's debut was close to last year's The Lincoln Lawyer ($13 million), and proved to take advantage of the female audience.  Audience reception wasn't great ("B-" CinemaScore grade), but it should be able to hold well next weekend as females will be looking for something to go see while their husbands enjoy the Super Bowl.  Tracking had suggested an opening in the $8-$9 million range, and Lionsgate produced the film for $42 million.

Even though it got an "A" CinemaScore grade, Red Tails still slid 45% to $10.4 million and fourth place for the weekend, but considering the amount of competition, it was a fine hold.  The George Lucas-financed war drama has earned $33.8 million in 10 days.



Meanwhile, the other new release stumbled into fifth place.  Sam Worthington's Man on a Ledge struggled to get him at least respectable numbers outside of Avatar and Clash of the Titans.  Earning $8 million, for a per-theater average of a dismal $2,669 from 2,998 theaters, that was just short of what analysts' and distributor Summit Entertainment were expecting (its' odd enough though that Lionsgate acquired Summit just this past week), who had forecasted an opening of around $10 million.  However, audiences were mainly positive with a "B+" CinemaScore grade, which could signal some legs later on, but Super Bowl weekend could blow out those chances.  The crime action flick was produced for $42 million.

Following its' Best Picture nomination at the Oscars, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close eased just 31% to $7 million and sixth place, for an okay $20.9 million tally since its' limited opening back at Christmas.  That's a notable hold, but it still has a long way to go to become a success, as its' currently looking at just a $35 million finish.  With lots of new competition with male leads, Contraband was unable to post a strong hold, but was still respectable with a 44% drop to $6.7 million and seventh place, for a $56.6 million tally in 17 days.  The Mark Wahlberg pic is headed for around $70 million on the domestic front.

Another Best Picture nominee, The Descendants expanded to 2,001 theaters and earned $6.4 million and eighth place in its' wide opening for a $58.7 million gross since its' limited opening back in November (11 weeks ago).  The George Clooney pic is looking to expand further as awards season continues.

Disney's 3D re-release of Beauty and the Beast retreated to ninth place and held better with a 40% ease to $5.3 million, for a $41.1 million gross in 17 days.  Adding in its' original run, and the animated classic's lifetime gross has grossed an impressive $215 million domestic.  Haywire rounded out the Top 10 in its' second week, slipping four spots and getting lost in the mix of all the competition with a 53% drop to $4 million, for a dismal $15.3 million tally in 10 days.  The Gina Carano action flick will be lucky to get past $20 million by the time its' all said and done.

Awards season contenders saw significant bump-ups following the Oscar nominations announcement this past week.  With its' 10 nominations, The Artist expanded to nearly 900 theaters and slotted in the 12th spot this weekend with $3.3 million, for a $16.7 million gross since its' limited opening back 10 weeks ago.  Martin Scorcese's Hugo, which led all films with 11 nominations, re-expanded to nearly 1,000 theaters and slotted in 15th place with $2.5 million, for a $58.9 million gross since its' wide opening also 10 weeks ago.  Despite a Best Picture nomination, Steven Spielberg's War Horse dropped 36% to $2 million, for a $75.6 million tally in six weeks of release.  In other milestone news, despite dropping to 11th place, Tom Cruise's Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol crossed the $200 million mark domestically and has become the franchise's biggest-earner worldwide with over $570 million to date, and the $600 million mark ready to be passed within the next couple of weeks.

Overall box office was up a solid 16% from the same time last year when supernatural horror The Rite possessed the top spot with $14.8 million.  As usual with horror flicks, it was very frontloaded and went on to gross just $33 million domestic, but close to $100 million worldwide.  No Strings Attached retreated to second with a nice hold, down 32% to $13.4 million, while action flick The Mechanic debuted in third with a decent $11.4 million, on its' way to just shy of $30 million domestic and about $50 million worldwide.  The Green Hornet continued to hold well sliding to fourth with a 37% ease to $11.2 million, and with several Oscar nominations, The King's Speech rounded out the Top 5 jumping up 41% to $11.1 million.

Here is the final Top 10:

#      Movie                                                                     Actual Gross         Projected Estimate         My Prediction

1      The Grey                                                            $19,665,101          $20,000,000           $14,500,000
2      Underworld: Awakening                                 $12,352,802          $12,500,000           $10,000,000
3      One for the Money                                          $11,515,790          $11,800,000            $11,000,000
4      Red Tails                                                            $10,370,323          $10,400,000           $11,500,000
5      Man on a Ledge                                                 $8,001,932             $8,300,000             $9,000,000
6      Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close                 $6,980,448            $7,100,000              $8,500,000
7      Contraband                                                          $6,704,360            $6,500,000              $6,500,000
8      The Descendants                                                $6,405,285            $6,600,000                   ---
9      Beauty and the Beast (3D)                                 $5,307,807            $5,300,000             $6,000,000
10    Haywire                                                                 $4,002,760            $4,000,000             $4,500,000