Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: The Grey
Liam Neeson is back and ready to tackle a whole new challenge. After playing a shooter getting something back thats' been taken from him, he plays a band of men being chased by wolves in this action thriller. Neeson has a fanbase so this should easily win the weekend, last year, he scored a hit with Unknown, which earned $26 million over the four-day President's Day Weekend and went on to gross around $65 million, or less than half of his last film, Taken, which benefited from strong legs. Earlier this month, buzz wasn't even notable, but it has picked up steadily over the month, and critics have liked what they've seen so far with 83% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. I don't expect similar results to his last few films because of it looking much different, but at least a solid opening should be expected. Dependent on word-of-mouth, this could also show some nice sustainability. This will also give distributor Open Road Films their first #1 hit.
Weekend Prediction: $14.5 million
Estimated Final Gross: $45-$50 million
#2: Red Tails
It earned a nice "A" CinemaScore from audiences, which bodes well for the road ahead. While it will have three new action pics to compete against, which will make its' drop a bit heavier than what positive word-of-mouth suggests, it still will see one of the better holds of the Top 10, jump ahead of Underworld and hold on to the second spot.
Weekend Prediction: $11.5 million (-39%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $36.6 million
#3: One For The Money
Distributor Lionsgate is hoping for similar results to last years' The Lincoln Lawyer ($14 million opening, $60 million finish), using the Groupon advertisement. While anticipation hasn't been too high for this, it still has starpower with Katherine Heigl, John Leguizamo, and the legendary Debbie Reynolds, which could draw a decent audience. Last weekend's female-centric film Haywire did a bit better than expected, but still was poorly marketed. This one, on the other hand, has seen good advertisement, but hasn't gotten positive support from critics. It won't open as high as Lawyer, but the lack of titles for the female audience should give this a decent number.
Weekend Prediction: $11 million
Estimated Final Gross: $30 million
#4: Underworld: Awakening
Horror films are typically front-loaded, and despite this fourquel opening on top with good numbers last weekend, its' in for quite a drop this time around. Hopefully the "A-" CinemaScore grade will soften the blow a bit.
Weekend Prediction: $10 million (-61%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $43.4 million
#5: Man on a Ledge
The last new release is a test for Avatar and Clash of the Titans star Sam Worthington to see if he can stand on his own. This crime action flick has gone up in buzz over the last week, but there is so much competition going up against it, and its' going to be difficult for it to snag the audience away from other flicks. Other starpower isn't very much, with Elizabeth Banks, Jamie Bell and Ed Harris being as familiar as it gets. I do think this flick has some minor potential, as I have seen commercials more for this than the other two new films, but, with critics panning it so far (17% on Rotten Tomatoes), its' going to be hard for it to snag even a double-digit opening.
Weekend Prediction: $9 million
Estimated Final Gross: $25-$30 million
#6: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Earning two Oscar nominations including Best Picture this week was probably something distributor Warner Bros. thought wouldn't happen. But that advantage alone will make this film hold the best out of the Top 10 this week, and an "A-" CinemaScore grade will also bode well for it.
Weekend Prediction: $8.5 million (-15%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $23 million
#7: Contraband
While this has been a hit, there's just too much competition with male leads to let this hold well. But, at least its' overperforming....
Weekend Prediction: $6.5 million (-46%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $57 million
#8: Beauty and the Beast (3D)
It suffered a pretty harsh fall last weekend, and analysts are now thinking this will fade fast. But with still no competition for family audiences, I truly believe that this will be its' weekend to pull a great hold.
Weekend Prediction: $6 million (-32%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $42 million
#9: Haywire
A discouraging "D+" grade from CinemaScore audiences isn't a good sign for this, and even with positive critical recetpion, it won't save it from getting lost in the mix this weekend.
Weekend Prediction: $4.5 million (-47%)
Estimated 10-Day Total: $16.2 million
#10: Joyful Noise
The musical comedy hasn't been holding like a crowd pleaser, but it should at least level off this time around...
Weekend Prediction: $3.5 million (-41%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $26.4 million
Possible change: Even though there's more competition, there's always a chance that Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol could hold well enough to take the 10th spot...
