Box office doesn't look like its' going to go higher than last year...
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I holds onto the top spot, dropping 64% from last weekend to an estimated $5.5 million, for a total of $235.9 million in 15 days. That's higher than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I's $4.6 million third Friday, which would go on to gross $17 million for the weekend. Twilight is a bit more front-loaded, so we should expect around $17 million for the weekend for this as well.
Unfortunately once again, none of the family movies were able to challenge the fantasy romance. The Muppets couldn't benefit from solid word-of-mouth and plunged 77 percent to an estimated $2.7 million on Friday. That's a tough break for such a good movie, but two things we need to remember is that one, post-Thanksgiving weekends are harsh to these kinds of movies, but two, kids are in school on Friday and will likely flock the movie theaters on Saturday and Sunday. By comparison, Tangled dropped 74% to $5.1 million on its' second Friday, on its' way to a $21.3 million second weekend. Replicating that films' 4.25 multiplier, and Muppets will likely finish the weekend with $11.5 million, then Disney will have to hope for serious legs afterwards.
The big story of the weekend was that Martin Scorcese's family adventure Hugo was able to benefit from expanding to 600 more theaters and early awards season buzz, easing 55% to an estimated $2 million on its' second Friday. The film won't see as good of a multiplier as Muppets because its' not as stronger of a pull for family audiences, but positive word-of-mouth should guide it to a second weekend of about $7.5 million.
Arthur Christmas holds onto the fourth spot as it drops 63% to an estimated $1.7 million. The best-reviewed animated film of the year should benefit from solid word-of-mouth and if it replicates Tangled's multiplier, it would challenge Hugo for third place with a weekend between $7 and $7.5 million.
Jack & Jill surprisingly continues to be a choice for families over the post-Thanksgiving weekend, easing 61% to an estimated $1.6 million and rounding out the Top 5. A $6 million weekend is likely. Happy Feet Two dropped from third to sixth, and plunging 74% to an estimated $1.4 million, and will probably come in closer towards $5.5 million.
Here is the projected Top 10 (updated):
#1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I ($16.8 million, -60%)
#2: The Muppets ($11.6 million, -60%)
#3: Hugo ($7.6 million, -34%)
#4: Arthur Christmas ($7.3 million, -40%)
#5: Jack & Jill ($6.1 million, -39%)
#6: Happy Feet Two ($5.7 million, -58%)
#7: Immortals ($5.2 million, -46%)
#8: The Descendants ($4.8 million, -33%)
#9: Puss in Boots ($3.1 million, -59%)
#10: J. Edgar ($2.4 million, -51%)
