(I have a couple of corrections to make) There are no new releases this frame, as the post-Thanksgiving frame is usually harsh to movies, as audiences will prefer to stay home for the weekend....
With family movies usually being affected the most, this advantage alone might keep The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I on top for a third-straight weekend. Though its' drop will likely be the same as last week as high-grossing films usually are more front-loaded. A 70% drop to $13 million would give it $240 million in 17 days.
The Muppets does have a nice shot at taking the #1 spot away from Twilight, but it won't be easy. The good news is that overwhelmingly positive reception might help it hold well, but then again, that didn't help Enchanted or Tangled. Disney's Thanksgiving releases drop on average 55-60% and a similar drop would put The Muppets at around $13 million and a chance at the top spot.
The only exception out of all the family movies might be Arthur Christmas, as its' holiday theme should keep the drop under 50%. Over the past few years, A Christmas Carol dropped 49% back in 2009 and The Polar Express slid 44%. A 45% ease to roughly $7 million would give it a mere $25 million in 10 days.
The other family movies will likely drop hard. Hugo will drop a bit lighter because of its' positive word-of-mouth and it is expanding to over 1,800 theaters, so a 40% ease to around $7 million, giving it $25 million in 10 days. Happy Feet Two is being left out in the cold due to much more appealing fare, so a 60% plunge to $5.5 million would give it just $52 million in 17 days. Puss in Boots will likely suffer the same fate (as MegaMind also dropped 60% over the same frame), which would give it $3 million for its' sixth weekend, giving it $140 million in 37 days.
The other noteworthy holdover, The Descendants is expanding into more theaters and might hold the best out of the Top 10 and jump up a few spots on the chart, so a 40% ease to around $4.5 million would give it $16 million in 17 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I ($13.2 million, -71%)
#2: The Muppets ($12.9 million, -57%)
#3: Arthur Christmas ($6.9 million, -43%)
#4: Hugo ($6.7 million, -41%)
#5: Happy Feet Two ($5.3 million, -62%)
#6: The Descendants ($4.6 million, -39%)
#7: Jack & Jill ($4.4 million, -56%)
#8: Immortals ($3.4 million, -64%)
#9: Puss in Boots ($3.1 million, -59%)
#10: Tower Heist ($2.9 million, -59%)
