Due to hardly any films standing in its' way, star-studded action comedy Tower Heist looks to snag the top spot this weekend. It has a lot of positive factors going for it, the starpower is top-class, with Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy heading a cast that also includes Matthew Broderick, Casey Affleck, and Gabbey Sidibe. Stiller is a huge star from being in Meet the Parents and its' successors plus Tropic Thunder and the Night at the Museum movies being nice-sized suceeses. As for Murphy, he hasn't really been on the live-action scene for a while, his only job in the past 5-10 years was voicing Donkey in the blockbuster Shrek movies, but he has a loyal fanbase of his own that will likely come out to see this. And the films' early-November slot is key for it to do strong business throughout the month, as there is no other competition for it in the weeks to come and critical reception has been positive by far with audience buzz being pretty high. The biggest comparison would probably be last years' Due Date, which earned $33 million on its' debut last year and would end up at just over $100 million domestically due to strong legs throughout the holiday season, and Tower Heist should end up at around that same range. Debuting in around 4,100 screens at 3,200+ theaters, look for the film to shoot up a solid $35 million for its' debut, and it should be on course for a domestic finish north of $100 million.
The other new release doesn't have as good potential, but it should do solidly in its' own right. A Very Harold & Kumar 3-D Christmas gets a jump on the holiday and follows three years after the last gangbusters film, Escape from Guatanamo Bay, which earned $15 million on its' opening weekend, and would go on to gross $43 million domestically. Similar numbers are in store for this, as the raunchy comedy duo is very popular among college students and young adults, and co-star Neil Patrick Harris, who has burst out onto the film scene over the last few years, will add in some other middle-aged adults who watch him on How I Met Your Mother. Critics have been negative towards it so far, but audiences have been ignoring the critics' thoughts several times this year alone, and the extra charge for 3-D grosses will help it at least match its' predecessors' opening. With the Christmas theme, it will also allow it to hold better and may end up beating its' predecessors' final gross. Opening in around 4,000 screens at 2,800+ theaters, look for the latest Harold & Kumar to shoot up around $18 million for its' debut, and it should be enough to reach $50 million by the time its' all said and done.
Disappointing in its' opening weekend, Puss in Boots is going to try and save face this weekend as the studio is hoping that more family availability and positive word-of-mouth will keep it going. Right now, it has seen stronger weekday business than last years' MegaMind and odds are currently favoring it holding well, so a 30% drop to $24.5 million may result, giving it $69 million in 10 days. Paranormal Activity 3 saw a strong Halloween, but it will further fold in this weekend as horror films cascade outside that holidays' glow. A 60% plunge to $7.5 million would give it a strong $95 million in 17 days. In Time looks to drop due to its' "B-" CinemaScore grade and competition from Tower Heist, so a drop close to 50% would give it roughly $6.5 million for the weekend, and a 10-day total of $23 million. The remake of Footloose, the only other notable holdover, will also lose more audience, a 45% ease to $3 million would give it $44 million in 24 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Tower Heist ($35.1 million)
#2: Puss in Boots ($24.4 million, -31%)
#3: A Harold & Kumar 3-D Christmas ($18 million)
#4: Paranormal Activity 3 ($7.6 million, -59%)
#5: In Time ($6.3 million, -47%)
#6: Footloose (2011) ($3.2 million, -43%)
#7: Real Steel ($2.8 million, -39%)
#8: The Rum Diary ($2.6 million, -48%)
#9: The Ides of March ($1.6 million, -43%)
#10: Courageous ($1.3 million, -25%)
