The holiday movie season starts off at a sour note as box office is going to plummet from last years' near-record holiday start...
Apparently, Tower Heist is #1 on Friday, but its' $8.1 million estimate indicates that its' far from most expectations. By comparison, Due Date opened to a $12.2 million Friday, but only saw a 2.7 multiplier and finished with a $32.7 million weekend. If Heist followed that same pattern, it would only see a $23 million opening weekend. But, that will all depend on how it does on Saturday, so I'm going to go on a limb and say it grosses $25 million for the weekend. It was on the low end also for a Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy flick, and earned a "B" CinemaScore grade.
Puss in Boots looks like it probably will take the #1 spot this weekend. The animated flick will likely see the years' biggest second-weekend hold for an animated feature as more family availability caused it to drop just 18% from last Friday with an estimated $7.8 million. That was exactly the same as MegaMind's second Friday, though that film had a much steeper drop. Look for Puss to reach that same films' second weekend, at just north of $29 million.
A Very Harold & Kumar 3-D Christmas is performing on the low-end of expectations, and its' Friday estimate of $5.5 million was short of Escape from Guatanamo Bay's $5.9 million. Following that films' 2.5 multiplier, this one would gross just $13.8 million for the weekend, but I do think that the Christmas theme will help some more people get to see it on Saturday and Sunday, so it should at least match its' predecessors' opening with a $15 million weekend.
On the holdover front, Paranormal Activity 3 sunk once again in fourth place, dropping a heavy 64% from last Friday, grossing an estimated $2.7 million, and will probably end up at $7 million for the weekend. In Time held a bit better than forecasted, with a 42% drop from last Friday to an estimated $2.5 million, and will probably wind up also at about $7 million for the weekend. The remake of Footloose held the best, with a 27% drop from last Friday to an estimated $1.4 million, where it looks to gross north of $4 million for the weekend.
Here is the projected Top 10 (updated):
#1: Puss in Boots ($29.1 million, -15%)
#2: Tower Heist ($24.7 million)
#3: A Very Harold & Kumar 3-D Christmas ($14.9 million)
#4: Paranormal Activity 3 ($7.3 million, -61%)
#5: In Time ($7 million, -41%)
#6: Footloose (2011) ($4.2 million, -25%)
#7: Real Steel ($2.8 million, -41%)
#8: The Rum Diary ($2.4 million, -53%)
#9: The Ides of March ($1.7 million, -40%)
#10: Moneyball ($1.5 million, -38%)
