Sunday, October 9, 2011

Weekend Box Office Report: "Real Steel" K-O's Competition and Holdovers....

Box office continued to be up from last year....

Hugh Jackman in character in a boxing pose in front of a large boxing robot in a similar pose.

As expected, Real Steel debuted at the top spot with $27.3 million, for a per-theater average of a good $7,942 from around 4,700 screens at 3,440 theaters.  That was on par with analysts' expectations and while it certainly isn't a strong number, it was still solid for a movie released in October, which is normally a weak time of year for theaters.  It also topped Rocky IV for the highest-grossing opening for a boxing film.  Trying to be the next Transformers, Steel tried to be the next major hit for not just action fans, but to be adjacent to families as well, and it did recieve a nice bump on Saturday, but was inconsequential due to the fact it was released at a time of year where movies hardly ever strike a high note (this years' exception was the 3-D re-release of The Lion King).  DreamWorks Pictures (who distributed the film through Disney's adult label Touchstone Pictures) produced the film for a hefty $110 million, and recieved modest critical reception and good audience reception ("A" CinemaScore grade), so it should be able to at least become a minor success if international earnings are just as promising.



Meanwhile, in a distant second, The Ides of March was able to start its' campaign off decently, with its' poll showing $10.5 million, for a per-theater average of a modest $4,761 from around 2,500 screens at 2,199 theaters.  That was on par with star Ryan Gosling's last flick Drive, which has earned $30 million through its' fourth weekend.  While the opening was on the low end of expectations, distributor Columbia Pictures produced the film for $13 million, and critics' have given it rave reviews, so it should become a decent-sized hit.  For director and co-star George Clooney, Ides was a huge risk because of the election season coming up and with the down economy, studios had concern that the serious concept would make audiences stay away, but the rave reviews and the involvement of both Clooney (the opening was standard for his tracking record) and Gosling seemed to keep at least their fanbases interested.

After topping last weekend, Dolphin Tale slides back to the third position and eases 34% to $9.1 million, for a $49 million tally in 17 days.  The inspirational drama has become a success against its' $37 million budget, and won't have any more competition for its' target audience for another two weeks. Brad Pitt's Moneyball follows in fourth place with a 38% ease to $7.5 million, for a $49.2 million tally in the same amount of time.  Expect both films to end their runs at around $75 million.

Among all the second weekend holdovers, 50/50 benefited from positive word-of-mouth and held onto fifth place with a 35% ease to $5.7 million, for a $17.5 million tally in 10 days.  On the other hand, despite an A+ CinemaScore grade, Courageous dropped 47% to $4.9 million and sixth place, for a $16.2 million tally in the same amount of time.  While that's a bit of a steep drop for a crowd-pleaser, its' not entirely unexpected since a vast majority of its' core audience has already seen it.  Even so, the film still is ahead of Fireproof's $12.7 million tally through the same amount of time three years ago.

With its' Blu-ray in stores, The Lion King (3-D) collapsed 57% in its' fourth weekend to $4.6 million, for a $86 million tally in 24 days.  Had the Blu-ray been delayed, the film would've gone past the $100 million mark, but now it looks like it will have to settle for a finish just short of $95 million.  Even so, the films' lifetime tally has climbed to $414 million domestically and almost $900 million worldwide, and is about to surpass Toy Story 3's final gross to become Disney's biggest-grossing film of all-time domestically.  And Disney's not complaining since they've set 3-D re-releases for four more of their animated classics.  Horror film Dream House follows in eighth with a 45% drop to $4.5 million, for a dismal $14.5 million tally in 10 days.  On the bright side, the hold is much stronger than a typical horror films' second weekend, but it will cascade in the weeks ahead due to more competition.

Meanwhile, What's Your Number? wished it hadn't asked that question, as the Anna Faris comedy drops 42% to $3.1 million, for a pathetic $10.4 million tally in 10 days, and will be lucky to reach $15 million stateside.  Matt Damon thriller Contagion holds onto the 10th slot, rounding out the field with a 40% drop to $2.9 million, for a $69 million tally in one month of release.

Box office was up 4% from the same time last year when The Social Network held onto the top spot for a second-straight week with a 31% ease to $15.5 million.  Romantic comedy Life as We Know It debuted in second with a decent $14.5 million.  The Katherine Heigl and Josh Duhamel flick would go on to gross $53.4 million domestically and $105 million worldwide.  Disney's sports drama Secretariat started off close behind in third with a modest $12.7 million, but saw great legs throughout the rest of the fall season, finishing with $60 million.  Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole continued to hold well in fourth place and in its' third weekend with a 37% ease to $6.9 million, and horror flick My Soul To Take 3-D rounded out the Top 5 debuting with a stale $6.8 million, crashing to a finish short of $15 million.  Despite opening in over 700 theaters, comedy It's Kind of a Funny Story reached only 12th place for the weekend with just a dismal $2 million.


Here is the final Top 10:

#    Movie                                                       Actual Gross          Projected Estimate          My Prediction

1    Real Steel                                             $27,319,677           $27,300,000            $34,700,000
2    The Ides of March                             $10,470,143           $10,400,000            $11,000,000
3    Dolphin Tale                                         $9,131,091             $9,160,000            $10,100,000
4    Moneyball                                            $7,453,989              $7,500,000              $7,900,000
5    50/50                                                      $5,652,149              $5,450,000              $5,800,000
6    Courageous                                          $4,867,876              $4,590,000              $6,600,000
7    The Lion King 3-D                               $4,598,606              $4,558,000              $6,000,000
8    Dream House                                        $4,475,525              $4,500,000              $4,000,000
9    What's Your Number?                         $3,126,728              $3,080,000              $2,600,000
10   Contagion                                             $2,942,322              $2,842,000              $2,900,000