The cheaply-produced horror blockbuster trilogy continues with Paranormal Activity 3, which is set to be the biggest-grossing opener in nearly three months. The first two films were huge hits over the last couple of years, and with budgets of just $15,000 and $2 million, they are easily the most profitable films in cinema history. The first one gradually rolled out from a limited release, causing it to see great legs and finishing with $108 million. The second one is the biggest comparison, which opened to a huge $40.7 million this same weekend last year, but crashed to a $85 million finish. Still though, 3 has seen high buzz and great critical reception, which is a rarity for a threequel, but the main question is that will it live up to the second one on opening weekend? I doubt it, since the second one disappointed some fans of the first one, but as most horror films this year have bombed (with the exception of Insidious, which grossed $54 million against just a $2 million budget), this one will definitely turn the tides. Opening in around 3,800 screens at 3,321 theaters, look for the latest Paranormal Activity to spook up a solid $36 million on its' opening weekend and will probably be on track for a $85-$90 million finish domestically, similar to its' predecessor.
Meanwhile, the latest adaption of The Three Musketeers will try to take some of Paranormal's audience away, in what looks to be an unsuccessful challenge. The PG-13 film comes from the director of the Resident Evil movies, and is distributed by Summit Entertainment, who has been relatively quiet this year. There is hardly any starpower, with the exception of Orlando Bloom and Evil's Milla Jovovich. While it looks to benefit from 3-D grosses as there hasn't been any movie filmed in the next dimension for some time, it looks to be inconsequential with competition in the weeks to come and further competition. The good news is that its' done exceptional business overseas, which will help it to turn a profit. Debuting in around 4,500 screens at 3,017 theaters, the Musketeers should earn about $15 million on its' debut and will be lucky to reach the $45 million mark before its' all said and done.
Rowan Atkinson is back as the "world's greatest spy" in action comedy reboot Johnny English Reborn. It follows eight years after the first Johnny English, which earned just $9 million on its' opening and $28 million total, which would translate to about $50 million today, but was a huge success overseas. Like the original and Musketeers, this reboot of sorts has also performed well overseas by far, with $85 million since its' foreign opening a few weeks ago. But, despite increased promotion and advertising, this sequel will be lucky to reach the original's domestic tally. The PG rating does make it family-adjacent and with Dolphin Tale starting to wind down, this might fit the bill and make the gross perk up a bit. Opening in 1,551 theaters, the return of Johnny English should shoot up $7.5 million for its' debut and will probably leave theaters with roughly $20 million.
Technically not counting as a wide release, faith-based sports drama The Mighty Macs debuts in 975 theaters this weekend from distributor Freestyle Releasing. The only starpower is Carla Gugino, who has mainly been in family movies, and the G rating will make it a clean choice for families and older adults, but awareness has been low. It will be lucky to gross $2 million for the weekend.
The biggest holdover probably will be Real Steel, which once again has no competition to deal with, a 40% drop to roughly $10 million would give it $65 million in 10 days. The remake of Footloose will hope to sustain its' audience, but dance flicks hardly ever hold well, a 45% drop to $8.5 million would give it $29 million in 10 days. Dolphin Tale will have one more weekend with its' core audience before a tidal wave ridden by Puss in Boots will wipe it out. A 30% drop to roughly $4.5 million would give it $65 million in one month of release. The Thing will collapse with Paranormal Activity 3 on the loose, so a 60% plunge to $3.5 million would give it just $16 million in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Paranormal Activity 3 ($35.9 million)
#2: The Three Musketeers ($14.7 million)
#3: Real Steel ($9.8 million, -40%)
#4: Footloose ($8.6 million, -45%)
#5: Johnny English Reborn ($7.5 million)
#6: Dolphin Tale ($4.4 million, -30%)
#7: The Ides of March ($4.2 million, -42%)
#8: Moneyball ($3.6 million, -35%)
#9: The Thing ($3.4 million, -62%)
#10: 50/50 ($3 million, -31%)
