Obviously the one that will mostlikely wind up on top this weekend is the remake of Footloose. The original film, which was released in 1984, earned $80 million at the box office, which is equivalent to over $200 million today. This new remake is updated to today's standards, and surely it has potential, but remakes hardly ever do well at the box office, with The Karate Kid being the only notable exception. Perhaps the biggest comparison might be the Step Up movies, which had openings of $22 million, $29 million, and the last one $15 million despite being in 3-D. The cast has no real starpower besides Dennis Quaid (even though Julianne Hough is popular from Dancing with the Stars and her country music career). The PG-13 flick has seen good promotion and critical reception has been generally positive. Debuting in around 4,000 screens at around 3,300 theaters, Footloose may cut loose with a decent $17 million start.
The other 80's remake opening this weekend is The Thing. Oddly-titled, the horror flick is actually a prequel to a 1982 film that grossed just $20 million domestically, or equivalent to nearly $100 million today. The original film is probably not remembered by most audiences, but the Halloween movie season will probably give this one a decent turn-out, though it will be slaughtered next weekend by the highly-anticipated Paranormal Activity 3. Critics have been generally negative towards it, which will further limit its' potential. Maybe the biggest comparison would be Fright Night ($7.7 million opening, $18 million finish), although that wasn't released in the Halloween season. Opening in around 3,300 screens at over 2,900 theaters, The Thing should do better than the average number for horror films this year and take in about $12 million for the weekend.
Meanwhile, the other new wide release is definitely the underdog and dark horse this weekend. Comedy The Big Year boasts strong starpower with Steve Martin, Jack Black, and Owen Wilson, but shows off a somewhat boring concept...birdwatching, though its mainly focused on the mid-life crisis situation. The fanbases of these actors may show up in decent numbers, and the PG rating does make it family-adjacent. The film hasn't been shown for critics yet, and buzz and promotion have been relatively mild. Opening in around 2,200 theaters, look for The Big Year to stumble with just $9 million for its' opening.
Meanwhile, Real Steel will hope to save some face after its' supposed mildly disappointing debut last weekend. A strong "A" CinemaScore grade may help it to hold better than typical big-budget action films, so a 45% drop may result, giving it $14.5 million and a $51 million tally in 10 days. The Ides of March earned a "B" CinemaScore grade, but no competition should help it maintain its' audience with a 35% ease to around $7 million and a $21 million tally in the same amount of time.
No competition should keep Dolphin Tale holding well. A 30% ease to roughly $6.5 million would give it $59 million in 24 days. Moneyball should also hold well as the World Series is currently going on, so a similar drop to around $5 million would give it $58 million in the same amount of time.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Footloose ($16.8 million)
#2: Real Steel ($14.6 million, -46%)
#3: The Thing ($12.1 million)
#4: The Big Year ($9 million)
#5: The Ides of March ($6.9 million, -34%)
#6: Dolphin Tale ($6.5 million, -29%)
#7: Moneyball ($5.1 million, -32%)
#8: 50/50 ($3.7 million, -33%)
#9: Courageous ($3.2 million, -35%)
#10: The Lion King 3-D ($3 million, -35%)
