Out of all the new releases, Brad Pitt sports drama Moneyball looks to have the best shot. Being one of two films based on a true story releasing this weekend, the film also is based upon the book written by the author of The Blind Side. As for true star quality, Pitt is a huge bankable star, and is very popular among adult women, and the baseball theme will help bring in the young adult men as well. The PG-13 flick has earned stellar reviews from critics and has overall been given the biggest interest among other films in overall audience buzz. In terms of opening weekend potential, baseball films haven't seen openings higher than around $20 million, which is where this film will likely end up. Now playing at around 3,800 screens at 2,993 theaters, look for Moneyball to earn a solid $19 million.
For teen heart-throb Taylor Lautner, action flick Abduction is his first headline role outside the Twilight saga. An action film is a smart move, as the teens these days are more into thrilling flicks, but besides Fast Five, there really hasn't been any other true action films this year that have broken out (last weekend's Drive did modest but not groundbreaking). As for Lautner, his audience should appear in solid numbers, fellow Twilight heart-throb Robert Pattinson found success earlier this year with book adaption Water for Elephants, which took in $17.5 million on its' debut and wound up with nearly $60 million. That number was helped by his co-star Reese Witherspoon, a much bigger star than Lautner's co-star Lily Collins, who only has seen popularity on Nickelodeon, and critical reception has been overwhelmingly negative. Now playing on around 3,600 screens at 3,118 theaters, Abduction should earn around $15 million this weekend.
Another film based on a true story comes to theaters this weekend. Family film Dolphin Tale follows the true story of Winter the Dolphin, who after losing her tail in a crab-trap, gets back to swimming with a prosthetic tail. The inspirational true story has nice starpower, with Harry Connick, Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman headlining. Coincidentally, the film comes from the producers of The Blind Side (since Moneyball is based on the book from the same author who wrote The Blind Side). The biggest comparison for Dolphin would be last years' Secretariat, which earned a modest $12.6 million on opening weekend, and would see huge legs, finishing with $60 million. With no new family films coming out until the beginning of November and critical reception being positive, Dolphin should see great legs even if its' opening is lower than analysts expectations. Now playing in over 5,500 screens at 3,507 theaters (over 2,500 playing it in 3-D), Dolphin Tale should swim away with around $15 million also.
The final new nationwide release is Killer Elite, another action flick which looks to take in the older men in the audience. The film does have starpower, with Robert De Niro being a bankable actor. However, distributor Open Road Films (a joint venture between Regal and AMC theaters) has yet to see a box office hit. Promotion and marketing has been good enough to make people aware and audience buzz has been modest, but the closest comparison would be last weekends' Drive. Now playing in 2,986 theaters, expect Killer Elite should shoot up about $10 million.
Going infinity and beyond expectations, The Lion King in 3D does have a decent shot of repeating at #1. And although Dolphin Tale will steal some of its' audience, the re-release remains the only animated film on the market. A 40% ease to $17 million would give it $57 million in 10 days. Contagion will face more competition, but it might continue to hold well with a 45% ease to $8 million, and would also give it $57 million, but in 17 days. Drive hopes to maintain its' audience, but its' C- CinemaScore grade and competition from Killer Elite will limit those chances. Look for a 50% drop to just over $5.5 million, and a $20 million total in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Moneyball ($17.8 million)
#2: The Lion King 3-D ($17.2 million, -43%)
#3: Dolphin Tale ($15.3 million)
#4: Abduction ($15 million)
#5: Killer Elite ($10.2 million)
#6: Contagion ($8.2 million, -44%)
#7: Drive ($5.7 million, -49%)
#8: The Help ($4.3 million, -30%)
#9: I Don't Know How She Does It ($2.5 million, -46%)
#10: Straw Dogs ($2.2 million, -59%)
