Box office looks to rebound from the last two weeks, and be signifigantly up from last year....
Right now, Moneyball is on top with an estimated $6.7 million opening Friday. That was a bit short of Contagion ($8.1 million) from earlier this month, but it was still nonetheless impressive given that baseball-themed films rarely succeed. With broad critical acclaim and a solid "A" CinemaScore grade, expect Moneyball to finish the weekend with around $20 million.
The biggest news of the weekend though is the amazing strength of Disney's 3-D re-release of The Lion King. The only animated film on the market dips just 31% from last Friday to an estimated $6.1 million. Following the same multiplier as its' opening weekend, and King would see a second weekend of around $20 million. This would give it $60 million in just 10 days.
Even though Lion King was obviously the top choice for families, it looks like there was still enough room for Dolphin Tale. The inspirational drama earned an estimated $5.1 million on Friday, which was a notch higher than Legend of the Guardians $4.6 million Friday last year, and Secretariat's $4 million Friday from last October. Dolphin has seen much better reviews than those two, and recieved a rare "A+" CinemaScore grade (the last family films to do so were Soul Surfer and Tangled). Based on similar films' trajectories and adding in the overwhelmingly positive word-of-mouth, Dolphin Tale should also be in the race for #1 with a $19 million weekend.
The other two new releases didn't do well. Taylor Lautner's Abduction didn't see a great crowd, as it only scored an estimated $3.8 million and fourth place on Friday. With a discouraging B- CinemaScore grade, I'd expect around $10 million for the weekend. The same number probably will go to Killer Elite, which was a bit more impressive with an estimated $3.3 million and fifth place on Friday, and earned a B+ grade from CinemaScore audiences.
On the holdover front, Contagion held decently with a 40% ease to an estimated $2.6 million, in what looks to be a $9 million third weekend. Drive didn't budge with a 50% drop to a $1.8 million estimate, in what looks to be a $5.5 million weekend, while The Help kept working wonders with a 32% ease to a $1.3 million estimate, and a $4.5 million weekend.
Its' a three-way race for #1, and I do think its' anyone's game, but I'm going to give the edge to The Lion King, with Moneyball second and Dolphin Tale third.
Here is the projected Top 10 (updated):
#1: The Lion King 3-D ($21.2 million, -28%)
#2: Moneyball ($20 million)
#3: Dolphin Tale ($18.8 million)
#4: Abduction ($10.3 million)
#5: Killer Elite ($9.6 million)
#6: Contagion ($9.1 million, -34%)
#7: Drive ($5.7 million, -49%)
#8: The Help ($4.4 million, -25%)
#9: I Don't Know How She Does It ($2.1 million, -53%)
#10: Straw Dogs ($1.8 million, -63%)
