Sunday, August 21, 2011

Weekend Report: "The Help" Takes Lead from "Apes"...

(Actuals have been reported)

Box office began to wind down again for the summer, and as I expected, the numbers for the most part only got as high as the upper teens to around $20 million.



After taking second place last weekend, The Help benefited from good word-of-mouth (a rare A+ grade from CinemaScore audiences) and took the top spot.  The period drama eased a light 23% to $20 million, and bringing its' total to to a strong $71.3 million in just 12 days.  With no new direct competition coming, it looks like it will definitely reach the $100 million mark domestically and could keep the top spot next weekend as well.  The Help has been the only film on the market that targets middle-aged women,
and the only other film to see that kind of potential and staying power this summer has been Bridesmaids,
which went on to gross over $165 million in ticket sales domestically.

Fox's Rise of the Planet of the Apes slid to second after two weeks atop the box office, and dropped a relatively light 42% to $16.1 million, and bringing its' total to a solid $133.6 million in just 17 days, and had the biggest third-weekend hold out of any major, non-animated blockbuster this summer.  If good holds continue, the highest this film could get might be $180 million stateside, and has already earned close to
$300 million worldwide.



The biggest new release of the weekend was Spy Kids: All The Time In The World, as the reboot to Robert Rodriguez's once-popular franchise earned third place for the weekend, snagging $11.6 million, for a per-theater average of a mild $3,534.  That was the worst opening gross for a Spy Kids movie yet, but it wasn't far from Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dream's $16.7 million opening (though that film had a Wednesday start) and The Advenures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl's $12.4 million start, and was also nearly twice the amount of Rodriguez's last family flick Shorts.  Furthermore, it was the same result as last years' Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, another 3-D long-awaited sequel that suffered
through a long lapse of time.  However, Spy Kids was produced for just $27 million, a number that the domestic tally will easily beat, as it has the 4-day Labor Day Weekend to look forward to and there is
no competition for the family audience until Dolphin Tale arrives on September 23 (not counting The Lion King's 3D re-release, but that will probably bomb).  If good holds do follow, then this reboot should be
able to yield reasonable numbers by the time it leaves theaters.  3-D showings accounted for 44% of the gross, which was a similar percentage to Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, and The Smurfs.



Conan The Barbarian follows in fourth place, and like I said earlier, its' definitely more like Season of
the Witch than The Expendables.  Lionsgate suffered with just $10 million, for a per-theater average of an okay $3,324.  The film had a hefty $90 million budget, something that the studio is going to have to keep its' fingers crossed for foreign grosses.  Remakes hardly do well, and the only one from the 1980's that has succeeded was last years' The Karate Kid.  But Conan further suffered from the fact that typical comic book fans aren't interested in midieval themes anymore.  3-D accounted for 61% of the gross.

The Smurfs spent their fourth weekend in the Top 5, and were relatively unharmed by Spy Kids.  The family flick dropped 43% to an $7.8 million and increasing its' tally to $117.5 million in 24 days.  Like
Spy Kids, The Smurfs will also hold well in the coming weeks, and have a strong 4-day Labor Day Weekend gross.  The little blue creatures have eked past the $300 million mark worldwide, and look
to finish near $150 million domestically.



Fright Night fared even worse.  Another 80's remake, yep.  The result, $7.713 million and just sixth place for the weekend, for a per-theater average of a poor $2,477 and some analysts (including myself) had thought based on similar films' trajectories it would take the top spot or second place.  But Fright Night's aggresive marketing just didn't excite fans of the horror genre, and it was a far cry from recent flicks such as Insidious, Scream 4, and Final Destination 5.  Produced for $30 million by Touchstone Pictures, its' going to probably finish far short of that number stateside.  3-D showings accounted for 61% of the gross.

Speaking of Final Destination 5, the potentially last horror film crashed an expected 57% in its'
second weekend to $7.703 million and increasing its' tally to $32.3 million in 10 days, though the hold
was stronger than Scream 4 and Sucker Punch through the same point.  It should be able to reach its'
$40 million budget when its' all said and done.  Fellow second-weekend holdover 30 Minutes or
Less didn't redeem itself, sliding to eighth place and dropping 52% to $6.4 million and raising its' total
to $25.8 million through its' tenth day.

The final new nationwide release, One Day was on par with expectations starting off in ninth place.  The romance drama earned a respectful $5.1 million on its' opening weekend, as it had a per-theater average
of a subpar $2,955.  It was largely ignored due to competition from The Help and had no real marketing
and promotional push.  Produced for $15 million by Focus Features, it probably will turn a profit from grosses in the U.K. (where the book it is based on was written).

Rounding out the Top 10 is Steve Carell romance comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love.  Easing 32% in its'
fourth weekend, it earned $4.8 million and so far has earned a solid $64.3 million in 24 days.

Overall business was down 4% from the same time last year when The Expendables stayed on top of the box office for the second weekend in a row with $17 million, dropping 51%.  Twilight mockery Vampires S*** debuted in second place with an okay $12.2 million (and $18.6 million since its' Wednesday start), on its' way to a $37 million finish.  Eat Pray Love followed in third with a 48% drop to $12.1 million, while comedy Lottery Ticket debuted in fourth place with a modest $10.7 million, and wouldn't hold well in the coming weeks, finishing with just under $25 million.  The Other Guys rounded out the Top 5 with a 42% drop to $10.2 million.  The other three new releases were bunched up in slots sixth through eighth, horror flick Piranha 3-D ($10.1 million), romance comedy The Switch ($8.4 million), and family sequel Nanny McPhee Returns ($8.4 million).

Here Is The Final Top 10:

Place   Movie Name                             Actual Number                Projected Estimate             My Prediction

#1   The Help                              $20,018,659              $20,386,000       $18,000,000
#2   Rise of the Planet                $16,119,502              $16,300,000        $14,500,000
       of the Apes
#3: Spy Kids: All The               $11,644,672              $12,020,000       $16,300,000
      Time In The World
#4: Conan The Barbarian        $10,021,215               $10,300,000      $14,000,000
#5: The Smurfs                             $7,802,377                 $8,000,000      $8,000,000
#6: Fright Night                          $7,714,388                 $7,900,000      $19,000,000
#7: Final Destination 5                   $7,703,466                 $7,700,000        $7,500,000
#8: 30 Minutes or Less                  $6,402,602                 $6,300,000        $6,500,000
#9: One Day                                $5,079,566                 $5,100,000        $5,900,000
#10: Crazy, Stupid, Love.              $4,797,364                 $4,960,000             ---