The new release with the safest bet for the top spot is yet again another horror flick with Don't Be Afraid of the Dark. Now I know what you're going to say, "You predicted Fright Night to win last weekend and you were waaaaay too optimistic on that, why would you think this one could win?" Well, one good reason is that it is being distributed by FilmDistrict, which had a huge hit with Insidious earlier this year. That flick opened to a much higher than expected $13.5 million and became a sleeper hit, with nearly $55 million domestically. The new company has been 2 for 2 so far, with Insidious and Soul Surfer becoming nice-sized hits. Its' likely because of its' R-rating that Dark won't match Insidious' opening weekend, but, it looks like an original, parodied film that fans will probably go out in decent numbers for. Opening in 2,500+ theaters, look for Dark to see an opening weekend of around $12 million.
The next major new release is action pic Colombiana, starring Avatar starlet Zoe Saldana. Besides the James Cameron mega-blockbuster, Saldana hasn't made much noise at the box office. Her last pic was the superhero spin-off The Losers, which bombed with just a $9 million opening and a finish just north of $25 million. Look for similar results for this action pic, though the plot and angle are similar to last years' Salt, which was very successful ($36 million opening, $119 million finish), though that one had a much bigger star (Angelina Jolie) and had much more promotion. Opening in 2,400+ theaters, look for Columbiana to earn roughly $10 million for its' opening weekend.
The other new nationwide release this weekend is comedy Our Idiot Brother, starring Paul Rudd. Comedies have succeeded at the box office this summer, but this just doesn't look like its' in the same vein as some of the most recent success stories. Distributor The Weinstein Company hasn't done much in terms of promotion and marketing, and the buzz and audience pull-in is similar to last weekends' One Day, which tanked with just $5.1 million on its' opening last weekend. Debuting in 2,000+ theaters, look for Brother to earn about $6 million.
Taking the top spot last weekend, it looks like The Help is a shoo-in for the top spot this weekend again. Positive word of mouth might guide it to a finish as high as $130-$140 million range. Look for it to continue holding well with a 28% slide to $14.5 million and its' total will be approaching the $100 million barrier. Rise of the Planet of the Apes is becoming one of the summers' biggest sleepers, and without any signifigant competition, a 45% drop to $8.5 million is within range, and boosting its' total to near the $150 million mark.
After its' somewhat underwhelming debut last weekend, Spy Kids: All The Time In The World will hope to save some face. And with no additional family competition, a nice second weekend hold is likely. Look for a 30% drop to around $8 million and an okay $24 million total in 10 days. The Smurfs will also benefit from no additional flicks for kids, and slide 30% also to $5.5 million and a $127 million pick-up in 24 days. With discouraging B- CinemaScore grades, Conan The Barbarian and Fright Night look to plunge in their second weekends. 60% collapses for both films would give them $4 million and $3 million, for totals of $18 million and $13 million in 10 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: The Help ($14.5 million, -28%)
#2: Don't Be Afraid of the Dark ($11.8 million)
#3: Colombiana ($10 million)
#4: Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($8.6 million, -44%)
#5: Spy Kids: All The Time In The World ($8.1 million, -30%)
#6: Our Idiot Brother ($6.2 million)
#7: The Smurfs ($5.4 million, -31%)
#8: Conan The Barbarian ($4.1 million, -59%)
#9: Final Destination 5 ($3.5 million, -54%)
#10: Fright Night ($3.1 million, -60%)
