Disney (through its' Touchstone banner) goes R-rated (which is a very rare occasion) with the horror remake Fright Night. The original film was released in 1985 and wasn't a blockbuster, and that doesn't signal a solid run for the remake. Starring Anton Yelchin (voice of Clumsy in The Smurfs), this particular flick I am betting on having the edge for first place this weekend for a number of reasons. One, Disney has been promoting it like crazy, and two, it feels like a fresh, new horror flick that fans can get to, as the only other ones released this year have been sequels. Those films, Scream 4 and last weekend's Final Destination 5, both opened to $18 million, and the fourth and potentially final Scream ended up with just $38 million. Expect similar results for Fright Night, which launches in over 4,000 screens at 2,900+ theaters, on its' way to about $19 million for its' opening.
Next we have the final family movie of the summer (as well as the final sequel of the summer), as director Robert Rodriguez revives his once-popular franchise with Spy Kids: All The Time In The World. The fourquel has seen a bunch of promotion on the major kid networks (Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network) and stars new kids (as well as the old kids, Alexa Vega and Daryl Sabara), plus Jessica Alba, Joel McHale, and Jeremy Piven along for the ride. The first three Spy Kids movies were big hits, earning a grand total of over $440 million worldwide, but, an eight-year wait is a long one, and its' tricky because a lot of fans may be too old now to care (some will go for the nostalgic factor though). Its' potential is also shortened drastically because of all the family films this summer underperforming, with the striking exception of The Smurfs. But, the good news is that Spy Kids will probably be the highest-grosser out of all the new releases in the long run, as there is no new competition for the family audience for over a month. I myself are one of the fans that have waited for this film a long time, and am hoping for the best. And the 4-D Aroma-Scope is a fresh, new idea that will win over kids and it being free of charge might help convince adults as well. Opening in around 4,200 screens at over 3,000 theaters, the film should be in the race for the top spot, but will likely land in second or third with a decent $16 million on its' opening weekend.
Another 80's remake also makes its' way into release this weekend. Conan The Barbarian releases from Lionsgate, and looks very similar to Season of the Witch from earlier this year. That film bombed with just $10.8 million on opening weekend and finishing with $25 million. I do think that there is potential for this flick, but it just doesn't seem like typical comic book fans are interested in midieval themes anymore, as showcased by Witch. And the R rating will definitely keep some of the audience away, though 3-D will probably help boost it to a higher number than Witch. Opening in around 4,000 screens at 2,900+ theaters, expect a $14 million debut.
The final new release really doesn't look like a success story. Romance drama One Day, based on a best-selling book does have starpower, with Anne Hathaway and Jim Sturgess starring, but Focus Features hasn't done much to promote it. And while previous book adaptions have succeeded (The Help, Julie and Julia and Water for Elephants being notable examples), this flick just doesn't have that same audience pull-in and buzz as those titles. Debuting in around 1,900 theaters, look for around a $6 million start.
After a solid start last weekend, The Help will have a real solid shot to snag the top spot this weekend because of its' rare "A+" CinemaScore grade. But the addition of another book adaption, despite the low gross potential may limit those chances. So for now, a 32% drop to $18 million should be expected and its' total will skyrocket past $70 million in just 12 days. Rise of the Planet of the Apes should hold better because of no more blockbusters to compete against, around a 45% drop to $14.5 million and its' total will approach $130 million in 17 days. The Smurfs will have a new family movie to compete against, but a 40% drop to around $8 million would still keep it playing past Labor Day Weekend, and its' total will go up close to the $120 million mark. The remaining holdovers will drop hard as a new horror movie opens to chase a good chunk of Final Destination 5's audience away and mixed word-of mouth won't help 30 Minutes or Less. Give them 60% and 50% drops to $7.5 million and $6.5 million, for totals of $33 million and $25 million through both films' 10th day.
The poll on which movie will top the weekend shows that Spy Kids took majority of the vote (80%), while The Help took in a respectable second weekend percentage (20%).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Fright Night ($19.4 million)
#2: The Help ($18.1 million, -32%)
#3: Spy Kids: All The Time In The World ($16.3 million)
#4: Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($14.6 million, -43%)
#5: Conan The Barbarian ($14.2 million)
#6: The Smurfs ($8 million, -42%)
#7: Final Destination 5 ($7.5 million, -59%)
#8: 30 Minutes or Less ($6.6 million, -50%)
#9: One Day ($5.9 million)
#10: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($3.9 million, -45%)
