For now, its' going to be a tight race between horror flicks Shark Night 3-D and Apollo 18. Shark is the rare PG-13 horror gem that teenagers will feel a bit safer going to, and promotion has been going on lately on the major networks. While distributor Rogue Pictures hasn't had a huge hit so far, and that will further shorten its' chances of having a huge opening weekend, this might reverse the trend. Star Sara Paxton has seen huge popularity from Darcy's Wild Life and Summerland, and her fans will also pop out in decent numbers. Launching on over 3,400 screens at around 2,400 theaters, look for Shark Night to benefit from 3-D grosses and earn $11 million in three days and $13.5 million over the extended weekend.
Apollo 18 is sort of a weird looking horror flick, coming from outer space and exploring what might've happened if the originally scheduled Apollo 17 mission wasn't cancelled (obviously we know it wouldn't have happened). Originally scheduled for March 4, distributor Dimension Films has been trying to give it a good promotional push, and while buzz has been modest, the disadvantage of no 3-D will limit its' gross potential and fall behind Shark Night. Opening in 2,750+ theaters, look for Apollo 18 to score $9.5 million in its' debut three-day weekend and roughly $12 million for the four-day weekend.
The other new nationwide release was released in theaters today, as The Debt tries to take in the adult audience with the star-studded cast of Helen Mirren, Sam Worthington, and Ciaran Hinds. Originally produced by the now-defunct Miramax Films, Focus Features picked up distribution after its' original December 2010 release date was pushed to today. Unfortunately, there has been very little promotion and its' been a rare occasion for adult dramas to succeed this year, but, its' number will be upped by the advantage of opening on Wednesday. Already playing at 1,786 theaters, look for Debt to earn $2 million over Wednesday and Thursday, $5.5 million over the traditional 3-day weekend, and $7 million over four days for a six-day total of $9 million.
The holdovers will look to recover after last weekend's impacts of Hurricane Irene. The Help will likely drop to second or third place after being on top for two weekends in a row (unless if the horror films do a lot less than expected). But look for it to continue holding well with a 30% drop to $9.5 million and its' four-day weekend to be at around $12 million, and its' total will go up to $116 million in 27 days, as it became the years' 22nd film to cross the $100 million mark on Tuesday. After opening to second place, Columbiana hopes to hold well with an A- CinemaScore grade, and a 45% drop to around $6 million in three days and $7.5 million in four would give the Zoe Saldana pic nearly $24 million in 10 days.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes looks to continue running well with a nice 4-day Weekend, a 45% drop to $5 million in three days and $7 million in four looks likely, and giving it a running total of near $160 million in one month of release. Family flicks Spy Kids: All The Time In The World and The Smurfs might see slight upticks from last weekend as their core audience will be out in force (as it always is on extended weekends). Look for Spy Kids to ease just 18% on the three-day weekend to $5 million and its' four-day extended weekend should reach $7 million, for a $32 million tally in 18 days. Smurfs should also drop 18% to $4 million in three days and $5.5 million in four, for a $135 million tally in six weeks.
Meanwhile, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark and Our Idiot Brother should fare much worse with their disappointing C- and C+ CinemaScore grades, though the 4-day weekend will soften the blow. 55% drops for both pics would give them $4 million and $3 million over three days and a notch higher in four days.
Here Is The Projected Top 10:
#1: Shark Night 3-D ($10.8 million 3-day) ($13.6 million 4-day)
#2: The Help ($9.4 million 3-day, -29%) ($12.1 million 4-day)
#3: Apollo 18 ($9.3 million 3-day) ($11.7 million 4-day)
#4: Colombiana ($6.2 million 3-day, -44%) ($7.6 million 4-day)
#5: The Debt ($5.6 million 3-day) ($7.4 million 4-day)
#6: Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($5.3 million 3-day, -42%) ($7.3 million 4-day)
#7: Spy Kids: All The Time In The World ($5.1 million 3-day, -17%) ($7 million 4-day)
#8: The Smurfs ($4.1 million 3-day, -16%) ($5.6 million 4-day)
#9: Don't Be Afraid of the Dark ($4 million 3-day, -54%) ($5.2 million 4-day)
#10: Our Idiot Brother ($3.2 million 3-day, -54%) ($4.5 million 4-day)
