With this week being Christmas, overall predictions are going to be very tricky as we are heading into break time for kids and parents looking for things to do on their time off. Overall business, in the meantime, looks to be up from this same weekend last year.
There are three major wide releases this weekend, two PG-rated aimed at families to a degree and one R-rated possible awards contender. The one with the most potential is animated flick Spies in Disguise. Blue Sky Studios' latest will stand out as the last major kids' flick of 2019, and will also benefit from strong reviews. Buzz isn't strong, however, and a strong amount of PG-rated competition will keep it from blockbuster numbers. But I think it should reach close to $20 million for the weekend, putting it third behind Star Wars and Jumanji.
As for Little Women, it has Oscar buzz, a strong cast and familiarity behind Louisa May Alcott's novel to its advantage. It also may appeal to families with older kids with a PG rating. On the downside, however, the film will also appeal to older viewers that may not come out right away. This looks like a film that may find strong legs over the coming weeks. Overall, I think this will get in the mid-to-high teens millions for the weekend proper, putting it fourth.
Finally, Adam Sandler is earning rave reviews (surprise!) for its' dramedy Uncut Gems, which will likely have a smaller theater count than the other two. Unfortunately, films aimed at adult crowds have had a really hard time the last few months, which could keep this one from really breaking out. Look for $4-5 million, and maybe $7-8 million since Wednesday.
As for holdovers, most family flicks should increase a bit with kids on break, while Star Wars will probably drop quite a bit from fans rushing out last week. Everyone else should hold about steady.
Here's the projected Top 10:
#1: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($75 million, -57%)
#2: Jumanji: The Next Level ($30 million, +15%)
#3: Spies in Disguise ($19 million, $27 million 5-day)
#4: Little Women ($16 million, $22 million 5-day)
#5: Frozen 2 ($14.5 million, +18%)
#6: Cats ($8 million, +23%)
#7: Knives Out ($5.5 million, -10%)
#8: Uncut Gems ($4.5 million)
#9: Bombshell ($4 million, -20%)
#10: Richard Jewell ($2.5 million, -2%)
