Overall business should be ahead of this same weekend last year.
Of course, the main attraction this weekend will be the end of the Skywalker Saga. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker debuts two years after fans were divided with The Last Jedi. Since then, Star Wars has been a tough franchise to deliver, as Solo was a major box office misfire last year. However, the promise of this concluding the story of all nine films plus a final appearance by Carrie Fisher will make this an event many will rush to. With buzz and ticket sales, I think this will fall short of The Last Jedi's opening weekend, but I think it will get above $200 million for it's opening, closer to the range of The Avengers ($207 million) and Jurassic World ($209 million). Of course, it's set for blockbuster numbers overseas, and will likely pass $1 billion by year's end.
The other two releases don't look like they will make as much impact, at least on opening weekend anyway. The adaptation of the Broadway musical Cats hits theaters also, and hasn't had a lot of positive buzz. The trailer received backlash, and since then, there's been loads of attempts to try and course-correct the criticism. Universal will be hoping the holidays will produce stronger legs on this. And musicals such as The Greatest Showman and Mary Poppins Returns have proved that with $160-175 million apiece. With so much fanfare for the original Broadway show, you'd think Cats would outperform that range. But tracking has left a lot to be desired. I'm thinking low-teens millions with hope for better numbers over the next two weeks (though with two more PG-rated movies opening on Christmas Day, that's not going to be easy).
The true story-drama Bombshell opens this weekend too, and is hoping for an awards season run. But mixed reviews don't signal a leggy run into that season (despite supporting actress buzz for Margot Robbie). Those who haven't tired of politics should give this a decent start, but I don't think it will hit $10 million.
As for holdovers, look for Jumanji to shed about half of its business as audiences return to the force (but it will regain some of that strength next week). Most holdovers (except for ones aimed at older crowds) will probably lose momentum before gaining some back next week.
Here's the predicted Top 10:
#1: Star Wars - The Rise of Skywalker ($205 million)
#2: Jumanji: The Next Level ($29 million, -49%)
#3: Cats ($13.5 million)
#4: Frozen 2 ($10 million, -48%)
#5: Bombshell ($8 million)
#6: Knives Out ($5 million, -46%)
#7: Richard Jewell ($2.75 million, -43%)
#8-#10 will be a tight race between Black Christmas, Ford v. Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Queen and Slim, which look to bring in about $2 million apiece.
