With Thanksgiving a week later this year, overall business won't be a direct apples-to-apples comparison with last year. Last year was Thanksgiving this weekend which featured the debuts of Ralph Breaks the Internet and Creed II.
This weekend, it's all about Frozen 2. Disney is looking to capture the families that turned the original into a $1.3 billion-grossing phenomenon. And despite it being six years, audiences still fondly remember the massive cultural cornerstone the original one was. "Let it Go" was played on radio for over a year, the soundtrack sold millions, and merchandise was a huge asset for the Disney company back then. It was enough for them to reconsider their usual "no sequel" rule and give the sister princesses a second adventure.
The good news here is that critics are liking what they are seeing (not as much as the original, but its' within spitting distance of the original's reception), and buzz is still very strong. There are some people who aren't thrilled for either one of two reasons (1: that there is a sequel because they didn't like the original, and 2: Elsa wasn't given a love interest according to the creators). But, the overall word is mostly positive and excited.
The anticipation and buzz here reminds me a lot of Toy Story 4, which opened to $122 million back in June. I can realistically see Frozen 2 opening to a similar number (though not opening in the summer does hold it back a bit), as it brings in a huge fanbase as well as families that are looking for something to see heading into the holiday stretch. Thanksgiving weekend next weekend will also be huge for it. But even if it falls short of its' predecessors' $400 million domestic gross, it will get the bang for its buck overseas, where China and Japan look to really fuel it. In the end, I expect a debut above $100 million and ahead of the $94 million five-day start of the first film.
Sony also is hoping that their Mr. Rogers' biopic, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, breaks out. And it has a lot of good going for it. Critical acclaim. Great reception for its' trailers. Appeal to families and the faith-based crowd. Tom Hanks. And generations of fans of Rogers' classic program. Yes, the crowds of Frozen 2 might keep this from really being a massive breakout, but I do think there's enough buzz and anticipation that it should get above $20 million in its launch, and then have some stellar holding power over the holidays and into awards season.
Finally, Chadwick Boseman's long-awaited 21 Bridges finally releases after being delayed twice. Distributor STX is hoping to pull in action fans in what looks to be a crowded field, unfortunately. Boseman has earned some fans due to his turn as Black Panther, and the trailers have done a good job racking up some buzz. I think this might reach double-digits, so I'm going with a debut right around $10 million. But I think this would have done much better if it had stuck with an earlier launch date.
Holdovers are going to have a bit of a hard time with Frozen bringing in huge crowds. The only movie that looks to have a strong chance at holding well is Last Christmas, which may benefit from date night crowds and people looking to get into the Christmas spirit as Thanksgiving approaches. Everything else looks to drop around 40% or higher (including last weekend's strong opener, Ford v. Ferrari) as the other two new releases will take a lot of adults away too.
Here's the projected Top 10:
#2: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood ($22 million)
#3: Ford v. Ferrari ($17.5 million, -44%)
#4: 21 Bridges ($10 million)
#5: Midway ($5 million, -43%)
#6 (tie): Last Christmas ($4.5 million, -33%)
#6 (tie): Last Christmas ($4.5 million, -33%)
Playing with Fire ($4.5 million, -47%)
#8: Charlie's Angels ($4 million, -54%)
#9 (tie): Joker ($3.5 million, -38%)
#8: Charlie's Angels ($4 million, -54%)
#9 (tie): Joker ($3.5 million, -38%)
The Good Liar ($3.5 million, -39%)
