Overall business looks to continue to fall flat behind last year, which featured Fantastic Beasts 2 and The Grinch combining for $100 million.
The film with the biggest chance of breaking out is Ford v. Ferrari. James Mangold's potential Oscar contender features Matt Damon and a very unique concept for a historical piece. The Fox release (inherited by Disney) has been marketed very strongly, and has pulled in some very solid buzz among adults. I think this is the kind of PG-13 drama that can connect on multiple quadrants, and get above $30 million in its debut, followed by strong legs.
The news isn't looking so good for the other releases. Sony's Charlie's Angels reboot doesn't look like its gaining much traction. The trailers didn't ignite too much excitement, and buzz is lagging. Kristen Stewart, Naomi Scott and director Elizabeth Banks also aren't very big draws (even Patrick Stewart). The film's recent trailer leaned heavily on their music video for "Don't Call Me Angel" with Miley Cyrus, Ariana Grande and Lana Del Rey, which is not a good sign of confidence in the film either. High-teens to around $20 million is projected, but I think its' going to fall short and land closer to $15 million.
That leaves Helen Mirren and Ian McKellen in their crime drama The Good Liar, which isn't expected to make much of an impact. Despite a wide release, overall marketing has been fairly limited. And the R rating will make it an even bigger challenge to appeal outside of older crowds. $6-7 million seems about right for the Warner Bros. release.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Ford v. Ferrari ($30 million)
#2: Charlie's Angels ($16 million)
#3: Midway ($10.5 million, -40%)
#4: Last Christmas ($8.5 million, -27%)
#5: Playing with Fire ($8 million, -38%)
#6: Doctor Sleep ($7 million, -52%)
#7: The Good Liar ($6.5 million)
#8: Joker ($6 million, -35%)
#9: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($5.5 million, -31%)
#10: Terminator: Dark Fate ($5 million, -54%)
Harriet ($5 million, -31%)
