Overall business will likely be down from this same weekend last year.
As for this weekend, all eyes are on how Doctor Sleep will do. As a sequel to The Shining, its earned strong remarks from critics and some solid buzz. But as a straight R-rated horror flick, it seems to be opening a little late in the year. Overall marketing is a bit limited, but that might be a good thing considering it's trying to hide a lot of the film from the audience. I think this one stands a good chance at approaching $30 million for its debut, and it will easily take first place.
Date night crowds will come out in solid numbers for Last Christmas, which stars Emilia Clarke and comes from producer and writer Emma Thompson. A solid opening should be expected, but don't necessarily expect a breakout. Christmas films tend to start a little slow sometimes but then have incredible holding power over the coming weeks, and I expect this to be no different. An opening in the mid-teens millions seems likely, but it will hang around for weeks.
As for Midway, the Lionsgate release has been marketed well, but its' failed to really show any breakout potential. There's no real big names here (outside of Woody Harrelson), and director Ronald Emmerich isn't the big draw he used to be. On a $100 million budget, Lionsgate could use a big opening here. I don't see that, instead it will have to face other competition for general audiences and probably land in the mid-teens.
That leaves Playing with Fire, which Paramount has marketed very heavily over the past few months. The PG-rated comedy comes from Andy Fickman, who directed The Game Plan and You Again. His films usually get panned by critics, and this probably won't be any different. John Cena, John Leguizamo, and Keegan-Michael Key will bring in some adults, but the overall film hasn't looked very appealing from the trailers. I think it will struggle to hit double-digits, with a likely $7-8 million start. It could hold well through Thanksgiving as only Frozen 2 will serve as real competition through then.
Worth keeping an eye on is Jojo Rabbit. The possible Oscar contender has played strong in limited release and will expand wide this weekend. Look for a possible $5-6 million weekend, enough for a spot in the Top 10.
As for holdovers, Terminator: Dark Fate will likely lose at least half of its business as fans came out to see it last week, while the remaining Fall holdovers will probably start to lose more traction as more of the holiday players come in.
Here's the predicted Top 10:
#1: Doctor Sleep ($28 million)
#2: Last Christmas ($16 million)
#3: Midway ($15 million)
#4: Terminator: Dark Fate ($14 million, -52%)
#5: Joker ($9 million, -34%)
#6: Playing with Fire ($8 million)
#7: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($7.5 million, -42%)
#8: Harriet ($7 million, -40%)
#9: Jojo Rabbit (expanding, $5.5 million)
#10: The Addams Family ($5 million, -40%)
