Based on my projections, overall business looks to be down from this same weekend last year which featured the $76 million launch of the new Halloween remake.
This weekend, Disney tries its hands again at a sequel to one of their fantasy re-imaginings, this time with a sequel to their 2014 hit Maleficent. Three years ago, Disney suffered a major misfire with (the underrated) Alice through the Looking Glass earning less than one third of the original's $1 billion worldwide gross. While the original Maleficent wasn't quite as divisive in audience reception as the original Alice, it still isn't quite well-regarded enough to make you think a sequel is necessary.
Overall buzz is definitely showing that to be the case here too. Trailer views and overall anticipation seem fairly low for a Disney pic. Of course none of that is for a lack of trying. Working in its favor, however, are Angelina Jolie and Michelle Pfeiffer looking to draw in adults, and the somewhat dark tone working well at this time of year (Halloween coming up soon). I think this will perform better than the Alice sequel, but it's not going to really break out either. High-30's to near $40 million seems like a safe bet. Though if it connects with family crowds like Disney titles normally do (which may or may not be the case based on the somewhat dark trailers and competition from Addams Family), it could go higher. But I'm not betting on it.
This puts long-awaited sequel Zombieland: Double Tap in a very good position. The 2009 original developed a major cult following a relatively successful $100 million worldwide gross. It also helps that the film's stars (Woody Harrelson, Emma Stone, Jesse Eisenberg and Abigail Breslin) have all earned more starpower over the years. Buzz has been very solid for the Sony release, which will pull in a young adult audience that has already seen Joker the past couple weeks. I'm thinking this will land in the same vicinity as the original's $25 million launch in 2009, if not a bit higher with more rushing out opening weekend.
As for holdovers, Joker is proving to be a rare leggy hit for October, and a similar hold to last week would put it above $30 million in a strong second. Meanwhile, Addams Family and Abominable will retreat due to Maleficent aiming for families with older kids, and Gemini Man will likely falter due to weak word-of-mouth. Everything else will look to hold solidly as they will mainly offer options for older adults not interested in the newbies.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($39 million)
#2: Joker ($32 million, -43%)
#3: Zombieland: Double Tap ($27 million)
#4: The Addams Family ($16 million, -47%)
#5: Gemini Man ($9 million, -57%)
#6: Abominable ($3.5 million, -43%)
#7: Downton Abbey ($3 million, -39%)
#8: Hustlers ($2.5 million, -36%)
#9: Judy ($2.25 million, -30%)
#10: It: Chapter 2 ($2 million, -36%)
