Overall business is likely to fall short from this same weekend last year.
This weekend its looking to be a fairly close race for second place, as Joker seems likely to remain at #1. But how hard will the clown prince of crime fall? Right now, I think a drop between 55 and 60% seems about right, which would put the R-rated flick at $40 million for the weekend.
Right now, its' anyone's guess as far as whether Gemini Man or The Addams Family takes second place. One is suffering from bad reviews and has hung in the $25-30 million range for long-range forecasts, while the other has been rising in buzz due to its proximity to Halloween. Gemini will most certainly benefit from Will Smith's popularity overseas, while Addams will benefit from generations of fans for that particular franchise.
On the downside, Gemini has its' reviews and will have to compete with Joker for adults (though the PG-13 rating will draw in teenagers). And Addams will be held back from really breaking out due to opening between Abominable and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. I think Gemini will have the edge and land close to the likes of John Carter and Battleship among similar PG-13 action flicks ($27-28 million), while I see Addams landing along the lines of Goosebumps (which opened to $23 million back on this same weekend in 2015).
Meanwhile, this leaves little room for much else. The only holdovers that might have a chance at holding well are ones aimed at older crowds, such as Downton Abbey and Judy (which might expand further). It: Chapter 2 might have a better hold than last week with Halloween starting to approach and no real horror competition.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Joker ($40 million, -57%)
#2: Gemini Man ($27 million)
#3: The Addams Family ($23 million)
#4: Abominable ($7 million, -42%)
#5: Downton Abbey ($5.5 million, -31%)
#6: Hustlers ($4 million, -37%)
#7: It: Chapter 2 ($3.5 million, -35%)
#8: Judy ($3.25 million, -26%)
#9: Ad Astra ($2.5 million, -46%)
#10: Rambo: Last Blood ($2 million, -45%)
