Overall business will likely be down from this same weekend last year...
This weekend, DC and Warner Bros. hope to walk the line of an awards season contender with their villain origin story Joker. The R-rated flick has been pulling in strong buzz heading into release, and the Golden Lion award from the Venice Film Festival gets long-term prospects looking good too. At the same time, however, being R-rated and not marketed like a typical superhero flick may hurt it to a degree as well.
The film also has come under some controversy over the past few weeks for the film's content being related to recent tragedies in the United States, which may turn some viewers off too. Many are thinking Joker stands an excellent chance at passing Venom's $80.2 million launch from last year for an October opening record. I'm not sure if it can, as that film had a more family-friendly PG-13 rating (though I'd argue the film was bordering on R itself) and younger draw. I think it will come close, but the chances of it falling short and reaching around $75 million seem more likely.
But Joker doesn't need to break records to be a hit. It only carries a reported $60 million budget, which the opening I'm suggesting would still be a great start by all means. How it holds from here will depend ultimately on word-of-mouth.
Otherwise, most holdovers should hold fairly well with only one new release in town. This is especially good news for Abominable, which should bring in kids and families to a strong sophomore hold. In fact, the Top 5 in general should hold very well. Meanwhile, Judy is expanding to over 1,400 locations, which could lead to a bit of an increase from last week.
Here's the predicted Top 10:
#1: Joker ($76 million)
#2: Abominable ($14 million, -32%)
#3: Downton Abbey ($8.5 million, -41%)
#4: Hustlers ($7.5 million, -34%)
#5: Ad Astra ($6.5 million, -35%)
#6: It: Chapter 2 ($6 million, -41%)
#7: Rambo: Last Blood ($5 million, -42%)
#8: Judy ($3.5 million, expanding)
#9: Good Boys ($1.4 million, -34%)
#10: The Lion King ($1.1 million, -34%)
