Based on my predictions, overall business should end up a little ahead of this same weekend last year.
The end of September brings only one new release, and its' the latest from DreamWorks Animation (who is in their first year with new distributor Universal), Abominable. The PG-rated flick has earned very solid reviews from critics, and enters a marketplace that has had nothing for kids since mid-August. However, studios have struggled as of late with opening an animated pic in late-September. Warner Animation had three subpar openings in a row with Storks, The LEGO Ninjago Movie and similar Yeti movie Smallfoot all opening below $25 million in their openings.
It's tough to forecast how this will turn out. Overall marketing has been strong, but buzz hasn't exactly been great. The road ahead has some competition as well with The Addams Family and Maleficent 2 both opening in mid-October. DreamWorks Animation usually gets a strong audience (with most of their films opening above $30 million), but Abominable is their first real original title in two and a half years. I think there will be enough kids and parents to power this to a debut higher than the Warner Bros. efforts, but I don't think it will break out on the level of Home or The Boss Baby. I'm aiming for the high-20's, if not close to the $30 million mark.
Beyond that, with no other new films opening means good news for most major holdovers (well, those that aren't aimed at kids). In fact, I expect the Top 5 to be at $10 million or higher as adults will have a chance to catch up with films they may have missed due to Downton Abbey taking a lot of attention last week. That film may have the heaviest drop of the weekend as many fans rushed out last week.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Abominable ($29 million)
#2: Downton Abbey ($13 million, -59%)
#3: Ad Astra ($12 million, -38%)
#4: Hustlers ($11 million, -35%)
#5: It: Chapter 2 ($10 million, -42%)
#6: Rambo: Last Blood ($9 million, -53%)
#7: Good Boys ($1.7 million, -32%)
#8: Angel Has Fallen ($1.5 million, -38%)
#9: The Lion King ($1.3 million, -50%)
#10: Overcomer ($1.1 million, -27%)
